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. 2022 May:120:40-46.
doi: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.03.003. Epub 2022 Mar 5.

Coronavirus disease 2019 and the global economy

Hakan Yilmazkuday  1
Affiliations

Coronavirus disease 2019 and the global economy

Hakan Yilmazkuday. Transp Policy (Oxf). 2022 May.

Abstract

Using daily data on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases from China and the rest of the world, this paper investigates the corresponding effects on the global economic activity. The empirical results based on a structural vector autoregression model using crude oil prices (COP) and the Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) are consistent with increases in COVID-19 cases acting as negative demand shocks in the global economic activity (reflected as reductions in COP) and negative supply shocks in the global transportation of commodities (reflected as increases in BDI). The historical decomposition results further suggest that the effects of COVID-19 cases on COP and BDI have been mostly observed in the early COVID-19 period.

Keywords: Baltic dry index; COVID-19; Coronavirus; Crude oil prices.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Descriptive Statistics and Lag Selection Notes: Data are represented as weekly percentage changes in daily variables.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Effects of COVID-19 on BDI and COP Notes: The solid lines represent the estimates, while dashed lines represent lower and upper bounds that correspond to the 68% credible intervals.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Historical Decomposition of BDI and COP Notes: The solid lines represent the estimates, while dashed lines represent lower and upper bounds that correspond to the 68% credible intervals.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Interaction between BDI and COP Notes: The solid lines represent the estimates, while dashed lines represent lower and upper bounds that correspond to the 68% credible intervals.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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