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. 2022 Mar 5:14:255-264.
doi: 10.2147/CLEP.S340031. eCollection 2022.

Estimating the Future Burden of Myocardial Infarction in France Until 2035: An Illness-Death Model-Based Approach

Johann Kuhn  1 , Valérie Olié  2 , Clémence Grave  2 , Yann Le Strat  1 , Christophe Bonaldi  1 , Pierre Joly  3
Affiliations

Estimating the Future Burden of Myocardial Infarction in France Until 2035: An Illness-Death Model-Based Approach

Johann Kuhn et al. Clin Epidemiol. .

Abstract

Purpose: In France, myocardial infarction (MI) was the second leading cause of years of life lost in 2019. Estimating the burden of MI in future years could help policymakers and other actors anticipate care and prevention needs and guide them in public health decision-making.

Materials and methods: Using data from the French hospital discharge database from 2007 to 2015 (n = 519,400), demographic data, and an illness-death model, we projected incidence, prevalence, number of prevalent cases and mean age of incident MI cases in France. The methodology took into account the age-cohort effect on MI incidence, mortality of healthy and diseased subjects, and the time since disease onset.

Results: Projections highlighted an increase in MI prevalence in men between 2015 and 2035 from 2.52% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): [2.48-2.56]) in 2015 to 4.02% ([3.92-4.12]) in 2035, and from 0.85% ([0.83-0.87]) to 1.44% ([1.38-1.50]) in women. This corresponds to an increase of 365,000 cases between 2015 and 2035 (+81.1%) for men and 146,000 cases for women (+88.0%). The difference in the mean age of incident cases between men and women decreased from 9.52 in 2015 to 5.49 years in 2035.

Conclusion: Our projections forecast an increase in MI prevalence between 2015 and 2035 in men and women, especially in relatively younger women. Using statistical models such as ours can help assess the impact of prevention campaigns for the main cardiovascular disease risk factors on the future MI prevalence.

Keywords: age-period-cohort model; burden; incidence; myocardial infarction; prevalence; projection.

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Conflict of interest statement

The Authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Illness-death model.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Hospitalized incidence rate per 100,000 myocardial infarctions according to sex (men on the left, women on the right) for several cohorts. Solid lines represent predicted data, while dashed lines represent forecasted data used for the estimation of epidemiology indicators.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Distribution of the estimated incident cases of myocardial infarction by age in men (left) and women (right) in 2015 (solid line), in 2025 (dotted line) and in 2035 (dashed line) according to the central INSEE scenario.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Estimated prevalence of myocardial infarction (with 95% uncertainty interval) from 2015 to 2035 in men (left) and in women (right) according to the central INSEE scenario.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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