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. 2022 Mar 4;9(1):20539517221080678.
doi: 10.1177/20539517221080678. eCollection 2022 Jan.

Political affiliation moderates subjective interpretations of COVID-19 graphs

Jonathan D Ericson  1 , William S Albert  1 , Ja-Nae Duane  1
Affiliations

Political affiliation moderates subjective interpretations of COVID-19 graphs

Jonathan D Ericson et al. Big Data Soc. .

Abstract

We examined the relationship between political affiliation, perceptual (percentage, slope) estimates, and subjective judgements of disease prevalence and mortality across three chart types. An online survey (N = 787) exposed separate groups of participants to charts displaying (a) COVID-19 data or (b) COVID-19 data labeled 'Influenza (Flu)'. Block 1 examined responses to cross-sectional mortality data (bar graphs, treemaps); results revealed that perceptual estimates comparing mortality in two countries were similar across political affiliations and chart types (all ps > .05), while subjective judgements revealed a disease x political party interaction (p < .05). Although Democrats and Republicans provided similar proportion estimates, Democrats interpreted mortality to be higher than Republicans; Democrats also interpreted mortality to be higher for COVID-19 than Influenza. Block 2 examined responses to time series (line graphs); Democrats and Republicans estimated greater slopes for COVID-19 trend lines than Influenza lines (p < .001); subjective judgements revealed a disease x political party interaction (p < .05). Democrats and Republicans indicated similar subjective rates of change for COVID-19 trends, and Democrats indicated lower subjective rates of change for Influenza than in any other condition. Thus, while Democrats and Republicans saw the graphs similarly in terms of percentages and line slopes, their subjective interpretations diverged. While we may see graphs of infectious disease data similarly from a purely mathematical or geometric perspective, our political affiliations may moderate how we subjectively interpret the data.

Keywords: Big data; COVID-19; data visualization; infectious disease; political affiliations; public health.

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Conflict of interest statement

Declaration of conflicting interests: The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Practice phase questions (PQs). (A) Bar graph practice questions (correct PQ2 response: 61%). (B) Treemap practice questions (correct PQ2 response: 33%). (C) Line graph practice question (correct PQ2 response: 45°). PQ1 and PQ2 were presented on separate, successive screens with the chart visible above each question.
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Test phase questions (TQs): COVID-19. (A) Block 1, bar graph. (B) Block 1, treemap. (C) Block 2, line graph. (D) Side-by-side view of COVID-19 and Influenza bar graphs (not shown to participants). TQs were presented on successive screens with charts visible above each question. Correct TQ1 responses: A, 29.9%; B 29.9%; C 45°.
Figure 3.
Figure 3.
Test phase questions (TQs): influenza. (A) Block 1, bar graph. (B) Block 1, treemap. (C) Block 2, line graph question. Correct TQ1 responses: A, 29.9%; B 29.9%; C 45°.
Figure 4.
Figure 4.
Block 1 results. Panels A-C: Perceptual (percentage) estimates [‘…the number of COVID-19-related deaths in Mexico is what percentage of the COVID-19-related deaths in the United States? (0-100%)’]. Dotted lines indicate correct responses (31%). Panels D-F: Subjective judgements [‘The number of COVID-19 related deaths is…’ (1 = ‘…about the same in the US and Mexico’; 5 = ‘…overwhelmingly more in the US compared to Mexico)]. Blue bars: Democrats. Red bars: Republicans. Letters above bars: Means with no letter in common are significantly different (Tukey's HSD, α = .05). n.s. indicates that no significant effects were found. Error bars indicate ± 1 SEM.
Figure 5.
Figure 5.
Block 2 results. Panels A–C: Perceptual (slope) estimates. The dotted line indicates the correct response (45°). Note that participants did not indicate exact degree values; rather, they selected one of 15 images depicting trend line slopes ranging from 10° to 80° in 5° increments. Panels D-F: Subjective judgements of trend line slopes (1 = ‘very slightly increasing’, 5 = ‘very sharply’ increasing). Blue bars: Democrats. Red bars: Republicans. Letters above bars: Means with no letter in common are significantly different (Tukey's HSD, α = .05). n.s. indicates that no significant effects were found. Error bars indicate ± 1 SEM.
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