Using machine learning to identify important predictors of COVID-19 infection prevention behaviors during the early phase of the pandemic

Caspar J Van Lissa^{1

2}, Wolfgang Stroebe³, Michelle R vanDellen⁴, N Pontus Leander^{3

5}, Maximilian Agostini³, Tim Draws⁶, Andrii Grygoryshyn⁷, Ben Gützgow³, Jannis Kreienkamp³, Clara S Vetter⁷, Georgios Abakoumkin⁸, Jamilah Hanum Abdul Khaiyom⁹, Vjolica Ahmedi¹⁰, Handan Akkas¹¹, Carlos A Almenara¹², Mohsin Atta¹³, Sabahat Cigdem Bagci¹⁴, Sima Basel¹⁵, Edona Berisha Kida¹⁰, Allan B I Bernardo¹⁶, Nicholas R Buttrick¹⁷, Phatthanakit Chobthamkit¹⁸, Hoon-Seok Choi¹⁹, Mioara Cristea²⁰, Sára Csaba²¹, Kaja Damnjanović²², Ivan Danyliuk²³, Arobindu Dash²⁴, Daniela Di Santo²⁵, Karen M Douglas²⁶, Violeta Enea²⁷, Daiane Gracieli Faller¹⁵, Gavan J Fitzsimons²⁸, Alexandra Gheorghiu²⁷, Ángel Gómez²⁹, Ali Hamaidia³⁰, Qing Han³¹, Mai Helmy^{32

33}, Joevarian Hudiyana³⁴, Bertus F Jeronimus³, Ding-Yu Jiang³⁵, Veljko Jovanović³⁶, Željka Kamenov³⁷, Anna Kende²¹, Shian-Ling Keng³⁸, Tra Thi Thanh Kieu³⁹, Yasin Koc³, Kamila Kovyazina⁴⁰, Inna Kozytska²³, Joshua Krause³, Arie W Kruglanksi⁴¹, Anton Kurapov⁴², Maja Kutlaca⁴³, Nóra Anna Lantos²¹, Edward P Lemay Jr⁴¹, Cokorda Bagus Jaya Lesmana⁴³, Winnifred R Louis⁴⁴, Adrian Lueders⁴⁵, Najma Iqbal Malik¹³, Anton P Martinez⁴⁶, Kira O McCabe⁴⁷, Jasmina Mehulić³⁷, Mirra Noor Milla³⁴, Idris Mohammed⁴⁸, Erica Molinario⁴⁹, Manuel Moyano⁵⁰, Hayat Muhammad⁵¹, Silvana Mula²⁵, Hamdi Muluk³³, Solomiia Myroniuk³, Reza Najafi⁵², Claudia F Nisa¹⁵, Boglárka Nyúl²¹, Paul A O'Keefe⁵³, Jose Javier Olivas Osuna²⁹, Evgeny N Osin⁵⁴, Joonha Park⁵⁵, Gennaro Pica⁵⁶, Antonio Pierro²⁵, Jonas H Rees⁵⁷, Anne Margit Reitsema³, Elena Resta²⁵, Marika Rullo⁵⁸, Michelle K Ryan^{3

59}, Adil Samekin⁶⁰, Pekka Santtila⁶¹, Edyta M Sasin¹⁵, Birga M Schumpe⁷, Heyla A Selim⁶², Michael Vicente Stanton⁶³, Samiah Sultana³, Robbie M Sutton²⁶, Eleftheria Tseliou⁸, Akira Utsugi⁶⁴, Jolien Anne van Breen⁶⁵, Kees Van Veen³, Alexandra Vázquez²⁹, Robin Wollast⁴³, Victoria Wai-Lan Yeung⁶⁶, Somayeh Zand⁴⁹, Iris Lav Žeželj²², Bang Zheng⁶⁷, Andreas Zick⁵⁷, Claudia Zúñiga⁶⁸, Jocelyn J Bélanger¹⁵

Affiliations

¹ Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
² Open Science Community Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
³ University of Groningen, Gronigen, the Netherlands.
⁴ University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
⁵ Wayne State University, Detroit, MI, USA.
⁶ Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands.
⁷ University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
⁸ University of Thessaly, Volos, Greece.
⁹ International Islamic University Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia.
¹⁰ University of Pristina, Pristina, Kosovo.
¹¹ Ankara Science University, Ankara, Turkey.
¹² Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Peru.
¹³ University of Sargodha, Punjab, Pakistan.
¹⁴ Sabanci University, Tuzla, Turkey.
¹⁵ New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
¹⁶ De La Salle University, Metro Manila, Philippines.
¹⁷ University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
¹⁸ Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand.
¹⁹ Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, South Korea.
²⁰ Heriot Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.
²¹ ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary.
²² University of Belgrade, Beograd, Serbia.
²³ Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine.
²⁴ Leuphana University of Luneburg, Lüneburg, Germany.
²⁵ University "La Sapienza", Rome, Italy.
²⁶ University of Kent, Canterbury, UK.
²⁷ Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Iași, Romania.
²⁸ Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
²⁹ Universidad Nacional de Educacion a Distancia, Madrid, Spain.
³⁰ Setif 2 University, Setif, Algeria.
³¹ University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
³² Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman.
³³ Menoufia University, Shibin Al Kawm, Al Minufiyah, Egypt.
³⁴ Universitas Indonesia, Jawa Barat, Indonesia.
³⁵ National Chung-Cheng University, Chiayi, Taiwan.
³⁶ University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia.
³⁷ University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia.
³⁸ Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
³⁹ HCMC University of Education, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
⁴⁰ Republic of Kazakhstan.
⁴¹ University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.
⁴² Durham University, Durham, UK.
⁴³ Udayana University, Kuta Selatan, Indonesia.
⁴⁴ The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD, Australia.
⁴⁵ University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland.
⁴⁶ The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
⁴⁷ Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
⁴⁸ Usmanu Danfodiyo University Sokoto, Sokoto, Nigeria.
⁴⁹ Florida Gulf Coast University, Fort Myers, FL, USA.
⁵⁰ University of Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain.
⁵¹ University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan.
⁵² University of Padova, Padua, Italy.
⁵³ Yale-NUS College, Singapore, Singapore.
⁵⁴ HSE University, Moscow, Russia.
⁵⁵ NUCB Business School, Nagoya, Japan.
⁵⁶ University of Camerino, Camerino, Italy.
⁵⁷ Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany.
⁵⁸ University of Siena - Arezzo Campus, Siena, Italy.
⁵⁹ University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
⁶⁰ M. Narikbayev KAZGUU University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan.
⁶¹ New York University Shanghai, Shanghai, China.
⁶² King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
⁶³ California State University East Bay, Hayward, CA, USA.
⁶⁴ Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.
⁶⁵ Leiden University, Leiden, the Netherlands.
⁶⁶ Lingnan University, Tuen Mun, Hong Kong.
⁶⁷ Imperial College London, London, UK.
⁶⁸ Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.

PMID: 35282654
PMCID: PMC8904175
DOI: 10.1016/j.patter.2022.100482

Using machine learning to identify important predictors of COVID-19 infection prevention behaviors during the early phase of the pandemic

Caspar J Van Lissa et al. Patterns (N Y). 2022.

. 2022 Apr 8;3(4):100482.

doi: 10.1016/j.patter.2022.100482. Epub 2022 Mar 9.

Authors

Affiliations

¹ Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands.
² Open Science Community Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
³ University of Groningen, Gronigen, the Netherlands.
⁴ University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
⁵ Wayne State University, Detroit, MI, USA.
⁶ Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands.
⁷ University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
⁸ University of Thessaly, Volos, Greece.
⁹ International Islamic University Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia.
¹⁰ University of Pristina, Pristina, Kosovo.
¹¹ Ankara Science University, Ankara, Turkey.
¹² Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, Lima, Peru.
¹³ University of Sargodha, Punjab, Pakistan.
¹⁴ Sabanci University, Tuzla, Turkey.
¹⁵ New York University Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
¹⁶ De La Salle University, Metro Manila, Philippines.
¹⁷ University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA.
¹⁸ Thammasat University, Bangkok, Thailand.
¹⁹ Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, South Korea.
²⁰ Heriot Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland.
²¹ ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary.
²² University of Belgrade, Beograd, Serbia.
²³ Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine.
²⁴ Leuphana University of Luneburg, Lüneburg, Germany.
²⁵ University "La Sapienza", Rome, Italy.
²⁶ University of Kent, Canterbury, UK.
²⁷ Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Iași, Romania.
²⁸ Duke University, Durham, NC, USA.
²⁹ Universidad Nacional de Educacion a Distancia, Madrid, Spain.
³⁰ Setif 2 University, Setif, Algeria.
³¹ University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
³² Sultan Qaboos University, Muscat, Oman.
³³ Menoufia University, Shibin Al Kawm, Al Minufiyah, Egypt.
³⁴ Universitas Indonesia, Jawa Barat, Indonesia.
³⁵ National Chung-Cheng University, Chiayi, Taiwan.
³⁶ University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia.
³⁷ University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia.
³⁸ Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
³⁹ HCMC University of Education, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
⁴⁰ Republic of Kazakhstan.
⁴¹ University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.
⁴² Durham University, Durham, UK.
⁴³ Udayana University, Kuta Selatan, Indonesia.
⁴⁴ The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD, Australia.
⁴⁵ University of Limerick, Limerick, Ireland.
⁴⁶ The University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.
⁴⁷ Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
⁴⁸ Usmanu Danfodiyo University Sokoto, Sokoto, Nigeria.
⁴⁹ Florida Gulf Coast University, Fort Myers, FL, USA.
⁵⁰ University of Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain.
⁵¹ University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan.
⁵² University of Padova, Padua, Italy.
⁵³ Yale-NUS College, Singapore, Singapore.
⁵⁴ HSE University, Moscow, Russia.
⁵⁵ NUCB Business School, Nagoya, Japan.
⁵⁶ University of Camerino, Camerino, Italy.
⁵⁷ Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany.
⁵⁸ University of Siena - Arezzo Campus, Siena, Italy.
⁵⁹ University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
⁶⁰ M. Narikbayev KAZGUU University, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan.
⁶¹ New York University Shanghai, Shanghai, China.
⁶² King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
⁶³ California State University East Bay, Hayward, CA, USA.
⁶⁴ Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan.
⁶⁵ Leiden University, Leiden, the Netherlands.
⁶⁶ Lingnan University, Tuen Mun, Hong Kong.
⁶⁷ Imperial College London, London, UK.
⁶⁸ Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.

PMID: 35282654
PMCID: PMC8904175
DOI: 10.1016/j.patter.2022.100482

Abstract

Before vaccines for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) became available, a set of infection-prevention behaviors constituted the primary means to mitigate the virus spread. Our study aimed to identify important predictors of this set of behaviors. Whereas social and health psychological theories suggest a limited set of predictors, machine-learning analyses can identify correlates from a larger pool of candidate predictors. We used random forests to rank 115 candidate correlates of infection-prevention behavior in 56,072 participants across 28 countries, administered in March to May 2020. The machine-learning model predicted 52% of the variance in infection-prevention behavior in a separate test sample-exceeding the performance of psychological models of health behavior. Results indicated the two most important predictors related to individual-level injunctive norms. Illustrating how data-driven methods can complement theory, some of the most important predictors were not derived from theories of health behavior-and some theoretically derived predictors were relatively unimportant.

Keywords: COVID-19; health behaviors; machine learning; public goods dilemma; random forest; social norms.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

**Figure 1**
Machine-learning results for self-reported personal infection-prevention behavior Variables ranked in order of relative importance.

**Figure 2**
Partial-dependence plots depicting bivariate associations between each variable and infection-prevention behaviors

See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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Using machine learning to identify important predictors of COVID-19 infection prevention behaviors during the early phase of the pandemic

Affiliations

Using machine learning to identify important predictors of COVID-19 infection prevention behaviors during the early phase of the pandemic

Authors

Affiliations

Abstract

Conflict of interest statement

Figures

References

LinkOut - more resources

Full Text Sources