Battery technology and recycling alone will not save the electric mobility transition from future cobalt shortages

Abstract

In recent years, increasing attention has been given to the potential supply risks of critical battery materials, such as cobalt, for electric mobility transitions. While battery technology and recycling advancement are two widely acknowledged strategies for addressing such supply risks, the extent to which they will relieve global and regional cobalt demand-supply imbalance remains poorly understood. Here, we address this gap by simulating historical (1998-2019) and future (2020-2050) global cobalt cycles covering both traditional and emerging end uses with regional resolution (China, the U.S., Japan, the EU, and the rest of the world). We show that cobalt-free batteries and recycling progress can indeed significantly alleviate long-term cobalt supply risks. However, the cobalt supply shortage appears inevitable in the short- to medium-term (during 2028-2033), even under the most technologically optimistic scenario. Our results reveal varying cobalt supply security levels by region and indicate the urgency of boosting primary cobalt supply to ensure global e-mobility ambitions.

Fig. 1. System definition of the global anthropogenic cobalt cycle and modeling framework for cobalt demand and secondary supply potentials.

BEV battery electric vehicles, PHEV plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, NMC lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide, NCA(I) lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide, NCA(II) advanced NCA with lower cobalt content and higher energy density, LFP(I) lithium iron phosphate, LFP(II) new form of LFP (e.g., blade LFP battery developed by the company BYD), LMO lithium manganese oxide, Li-air lithium-air, Li-S lithium-sulfur, SSB solid-state battery, B-PEV battery for electric passenger vehicles, B-EB battery for electric buses, B-ESS battery for energy storage systems, B-CE&O battery for consumer electronics and other battery products, SA superalloy, CC cemented carbides, MAG magnets, CAT catalysts, PI pigments, OTH other end uses. Battery cathodes in black and red colors indicate state-of-the-art battery technologies and future battery technologies, respectively.

Fig. 2. Historical cobalt stocks and flows at global and regional scales, 1998–2019.

a Cumulative global cobalt cycle, b cumulative cobalt apparent consumption (inflows to manufacturing) by sector by region, c cumulative net import (positive values) and net export (negative values) of cobalt-containing final products by sector by region, d cumulative demand (inflows to in-use stocks) by sector by region, and e in-use stocks by end use by region in 2019. All values are in metric kilotons as cobalt metallic equivalent.

Fig. 3. Prospective global cobalt demand (positive values), scrap generation (negative values), and total supply (primary + secondary) under the seven scenarios.

a S1: state-of-the-art battery cathode technology scenario as the reference scenario; b S2: low-cobalt battery cathode technology scenario; c S3: LFP-dominant cobalt-free battery cathode technology scenario; d S4: next-generation cobalt-free battery cathode technology scenario; e S5: extending battery lifetime scenario; f S6: high recycling rate scenario; and g S7: the most optimistic technology scenario. The scenarios are detailed in Table 2 in the Methods section. The primary-base and primary-high indicate two primary supply scenarios, as shown in Table 1 and Methods.

Fig. 4. Prospective cumulative primary demand, domestic and total reserve, and corresponding supply security levels under the seven selected scenarios.

a The regional cumulative primary demand (gross demand minus secondary supply) under the seven scenarios from 2020 to 2050; b shares of domestic reserves by region in 2019; c shares of total reserves (domestic reserves plus overseas cobalt reserve ownership) by region in 2019 and the primary cobalt supply security level during 2020–2050 measured by d domestic reserve divided by cumulative primary demand; e total reserve divided by cumulative primary demand; and f total reserve divided by cumulative primary apparent consumption (primary demand plus net export of cobalt final products, which are assumed the same as the 2019 levels).