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. 2022 Jan 28:5:5.
doi: 10.1038/s41612-021-00226-2.

Indicate separate contributions of long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases in emission targets

Myles R Allen  1 , Glen P Peters  2 , Keith P Shine  3 , Christian Azar  4 , Paul Balcombe  5 , Olivier Boucher  6 , Michelle Cain  7 , Philippe Ciais  8 , William Collins  9 , Piers M Forster  10 , Dave J Frame  11 , Pierre Friedlingstein  12 , Claire Fyson  13 , Thomas Gasser  14 , Bill Hare  13 , Stuart Jenkins  15 , Steven P Hamburg  16 , Daniel J A Johansson  4 , John Lynch  15 , Adrian Macey  11 , Johannes Morfeldt  4 , Alexander Nauels  13 , Ilissa Ocko  16 , Michael Oppenheimer  17 , Stephen W Pacala  17 , Raymond Pierrehumbert  15 , Joeri Rogelj  18 , Michiel Schaeffer  13 , Carl F Schleussner  13 , Drew Shindell  19 , Ragnhild B Skeie  2 , Stephen M Smith  15 , Katsumasa Tanaka  8
Affiliations

Indicate separate contributions of long-lived and short-lived greenhouse gases in emission targets

Myles R Allen et al. NPJ Clim Atmos Sci. .
No abstract available

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1. Stylised LLCF and SLCF emissions and resulting global temperature change ΔT over a multi-decade period.
Darker bands in panels a and c show, respectively, constant LLCF and SLCF emissions of 1 tCO2-e100 per year starting some decades before the interval shown. Pale bands show a 10% increase one-quarter of the way through the interval shown, while dotted lines show a 50% decrease. Resulting temperature changes relative to the start of this interval shown in panels b and d, calculated using a simple climate model: vertical axes in b and d are scaled identically to illustrate smaller rate of warming due to constant SLCF emissions and much larger warming impact of any change in SLCF emissions relative to the warming due to identical CO2-e100 LLCF emissions. Vertical arrows in the right show predicted contributions to ΔT from the individual terms in Eq. (3): three arrows in panel b show cumulative LLCF emissions over this interval multiplied by the TCRE for the three scenarios shown; the lower and upper arrows in panel d show, respectively, the predicted warming due to ongoing constant SLCF emissions and additional warming due to the 10% increase. The figure illustrates that Eq. (3) allows reliable, if approximate, prediction of multi-decade warming ΔT if, and only if, LLCF and SLCF emissions are specified separately.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

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