A field study of acute dynamic risk assessment in individuals convicted of sexual offenses

Abstract

Acute dynamic risk factors can change over short periods of time, even within days or hours. When making risk assessments of individuals convicted of sexual offenses, it is necessary to consider this rapidity of change, in order to monitor appropriately the recidivism risk and to prevent future crimes. Until now, there is only one instrument-the Acute-2007-which assesses acute risk factors in individuals convicted of sexual offenses. However, the current state of research about its psychometric properties is still limited. The aim of the present study was to examine the German version of the Acute-2007 in a final sample of N = 534 adult male individuals convicted of a sexual offense in Germany. Within a prospective-longitudinal field study, appropriately trained parole officers used the Acute-2007 directly after a case was allocated to them. By using an average follow-up period of M = 3.83 years, recidivism data were drawn from the Federal Central Criminal Register of the Federal Office of Justice. Results revealed that the Acute-2007 predicted moderately general (AUC = .64), sexual (AUC = .64), and violent (AUC = .64) recidivism. By using Cox regression analysis, the Acute-2007 significantly predicted the time periods until a sexual reoffense. Furthermore, the Acute-2007 added incremental predictive validity beyond the Static-99 in the prediction of sexual recidivism. Taken together, the results of the present study support the relevance of acute dynamic risk factors in risk assessment and management of individuals convicted of sexual offenses. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).