Global death burden and attributable risk factors of peripheral artery disease by age, sex, SDI regions, and countries from 1990 to 2030: Results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

Abstract

Background and aims: Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is a prevalent cardiovascular disease. Understanding current and future disease burden of PAD and its attributable risk factors is critical for developing prevention measures targeting PAD and associated complications.

Methods: We analyzed the death burden of PAD and the trends of six risk factors from 1990 to 2019 using the updated 2019 Global Burden of Disease study database, and projected the next decade death burden using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model.

Results: The global age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of PAD has a modest downward trend from 1990 to 2019. Regionally, ASMRs in higher-sociodemographic index (SDI) areas remained more remarkable than in lower-SDI areas by 2019, while the rate of increase in death burden in the lower-SDI regions increased rapidly over time. ASMR in males was greater than in females. In the population aged older than 40 years, the sex difference in PAD-associated mortality decreased with age. High fasting plasma glucose (FPG) became the primary risk factor for PAD-related death. The contributions of risk factors to PAD-related death varied by age group. Kidney dysfunction was the primary contributor to PAD-related death in people aged 40-59 years, particularly in women.

Conclusions: The global death burden of PAD has not substantially decreased over the three decades. There are large variations in the trend of PAD mortality and its attributable risk factors by SDI regions, sex, and age group. Targeted and effective strategies are needed for the management of PAD-related mortality in specific subgroups.

Keywords: Bayesian age-period-cohort model (BAPC); Disease burden; Peripheral artery disease; Projection; Risk factor.