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. 2022 Mar 1;5(3):e223418.
doi: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.3418.

Forecasted and Observed Drug Overdose Deaths in the US During the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020

Abigail R Cartus  1 , Yu Li  1 , Alexandria Macmadu  1 , William C Goedel  1 , Bennett Allen  2   3 , Magdalena Cerdá  2   3 , Brandon D L Marshall  1
Affiliations

Forecasted and Observed Drug Overdose Deaths in the US During the COVID-19 Pandemic in 2020

Abigail R Cartus et al. JAMA Netw Open. .

Abstract

This cross-sectional study uses data from the National Vital Statistics System to compare forecasted numbers of drug overdose deaths in the US in the latter 43 weeks of 2020 with the observed number of overdose deaths in that period.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of Interest Disclosures: Ms Macmadu reported receiving grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), National Institutes of Health (NIH) during the conduct of the study. Mr Allen reported receiving a grant from the NIDA, NIH during the conduct of the study. No other disclosures were reported.

Figures

Figure.
Figure.. Observed and Forecasted Weekly Model-Based Provisional Estimates of Drug Overdose Deaths in the US From 2016 to 2020
Data from Connecticut and North Carolina were excluded from the analysis. The vertical dashed line indicates the beginning of the forecast.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Friedman J, Akre S. COVID-19 and the drug overdose crisis: uncovering the deadliest months in the United States, January–July 2020. Am J Public Health. 2021;111(7):1284-1291. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2021.306256 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Ahmad FBRL, Sutton P. Provisional drug overdose death counts. National Center for Health Statistics; 2021.
    1. Mattson CL, Tanz LJ, Quinn K, Kariisa M, Patel P, Davis NL. Trends and geographic patterns in drug and synthetic opioid overdose deaths—United States, 2013-2019. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2021;70(6):202-207. doi:10.15585/mmwr.mm7006a4 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Rossen LMHH, Hedegaard H, Warner M, Ahmad FB, Sutton PD. Early provisional estimates of drug overdose, suicide, and transportation-related deaths: Nowcasting methods to account for reporting lags. Vital Statistics Rapid Release, Report No. 011. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. February 2021. doi:10.15620/cdc:101132 - DOI
    1. R package forecast: Forecasting functions for time series and linear models. Version 8.15. R Project for Statistical Computing; 2021.

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