Development and validation of a risk prediction model for chronic kidney disease among individuals with type 2 diabetes

Abstract

Many studies had established the chronic kidney disease (CKD) prediction models, but most of them were conducted on the general population and not on patients with type 2 diabetes, especially in Asian populations. This study aimed to develop a risk prediction model for CKD in patients with type 2 diabetes from the Diabetes Care Management Program (DCMP) in Taiwan. This research was a retrospective cohort study. We used the DCMP database to set up a cohort of 4,601 patients with type 2 diabetes without CKD aged 40-92 years enrolled in the DCMP program of a Taichung medical center in 2002-2016. All patients were followed up until incidences of CKD, death, and loss to follow-up or 2016. The dataset for participants of national DCMP in 2002-2004 was used as external validation. The incident CKD cases were defined as having one of the following three conditions: ACR data greater than or equal to 300 (mg/g); both eGFR data less than 60 (ml/min/1.73 m²) and ACR data greater than or equal to 30 (mg/g); and eGFR data less than 45 (ml/min/1.73 m²). The study subjects were randomly allocated to derivation and validation sets at a 2:1 ratio. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify the risk factors of CKD in the derivation set. Time-varying area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of the risk model. After an average of 3.8 years of follow-up period, 3,067 study subjects were included in the derivation set, and 786 (25.63%) were newly diagnosed CKD cases. A total of 1,534 participants were designated to the validation set, and 378 (24.64%) were newly diagnosed CKD cases. The final CKD risk factors consisted of age, duration of diabetes, insulin use, estimated glomerular filtration rate, albumin-to-creatinine ratio, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, diabetes retinopathy, variation in HbA1c, variation in FPG, and hypertension drug use. The AUC values of 1-, 3-, and 5-year CKD risks were 0.74, 0.76, and 0.77 in the validation set, respectively, and were 0.76, 0.77, and 0.76 in the sample for external validation, respectively. The value of Harrell's c-statistics was 0.76 (0.74, 0.78). The proposed model is the first CKD risk prediction model for type 2 diabetes patients in Taiwan. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year CKD risk prediction models showed good prediction accuracy. The model can be used as a guide for clinicians to develop medical plans for future CKD preventive intervention in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes.

Figure 1

Receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) for 1-year (A), 3-year (B), and 5-year (C) CKD risk in derivation set, 1-year (D), 3-year (E), and 5-year (F) CKD risk in validation set, and 1-year (G), 3-year (H), and 5-year (I) CKD risk in the sample for external validation.

Figure 2

The 5-year cumulative incidence of low, median, and high groups from validation set.

Figure 3

Predicted versus observed CKD cases according to deciles of 1-year (A), 3-year (B), and 5-year (C) CKD risk in derivation set and 1-year (D), 3-year (E), and 5-year (F) CKD risk in validation set.