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. 2022 Mar 20;19(6):3692.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph19063692.

Underestimation in Reporting Excess COVID-19 Death Data in Poland during the First Three Pandemic Waves

Marcin Piotr Walkowiak  1 , Dariusz Walkowiak  2
Affiliations

Underestimation in Reporting Excess COVID-19 Death Data in Poland during the First Three Pandemic Waves

Marcin Piotr Walkowiak et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

The issue whether official Polish COVID-19 death statistics correctly reflect the actual number of deaths is a contentious issue in public discourse and an important policy-wise question in Poland although it has not been the subject of thorough research so far. There had been clearly elevated excess mortality-5100 (death rate of 2.3 per 10,000) during the first wave, 77,500 (21.0 per 10,000) during the second one, and 48,900 (13.5 per 10,000) in the third. This study finds that during the second and the third pandemic wave, our data on excess mortality will match very well the somewhat belatedly officially reported COVID-19 deaths if we assume that only 60% of cases were officially detected. Based on principal component analysis of death timing, except for the age bracket below 40, where COVID-19 deaths calculated on the basis of our model explain 55% of excess mortality, for the remaining age groups, combined COVID-19 deaths explain 95% of excess mortality. Based on the share of excess mortality attributable to COVID-19 during the second wave, this infection in Poland caused the death of 73,300 people and not of 37,600 as officially reported. The third wave caused 46,200 deaths instead of the reported 34,700. The first wave was, indeed, as officially reported, very mild, and the number of excess deaths was too low to be used to calculate COVID-19 deaths directly. However, assuming that the detection rate remained comparable to the average in subsequent waves, we can set the number of deaths at 3500 instead of the reported 2100.

Keywords: COVID-19; Poland; excess deaths; excess mortality; public health.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Number of weekly deaths based on reported data, with the explanatory model by Verbeeck et al. and its adjusted version. Dataset from 2010-W01 to 2021-W48; data source: Statistics Poland.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Excess mortality rate during the three waves of COVID-19 pandemic in Poland per 10,000 people; I—1st wave, II—2nd wave, III—3rd wave; data source: Statistics Poland
Figure 3
Figure 3
Relation between weekly excess mortality and weekly officially recorded deaths for which COVID-19 was sole or among the listed causes of death, shifted back 4 days to adjust for reporting delay. Data source: Statistics Poland, Polish Chief Sanitary Inspector.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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