Empirical Modeling of COVID-19 Evolution with High/Direct Impact on Public Health and Risk Assessment

Abstract

This report develops a conceivable mathematical model for the transmission and spread of COVID-19 in Romania. Understanding the early spread dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures in the first wave of infection is crucial for assessing and evaluating the potential for sustained transmission occurring in the second wave. The main aim of the study was to emphasize the impact of control measures and the rate of case detection in slowing the spread of the disease. Non pharmaceutical control interventions include government actions, public reactions, and other measures. The methodology consists of an empirical model, taking into consideration the generic framework of the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) Epidemic-Macroeconomic Model, and incorporates the effect of interventions through a multivalued parameter, a stepwise constant varying during different phases of the interventions designed to capture their impact on the model. The model is mathematically consistent and presents various simulation results using best-estimated parameter values. The model can be easily updated later in response to real-world alterations, for example, the easing of restrictions. We hope that our simulation results may guide local authorities to make timely, correct decisions for public health and risk assessment.

Keywords: COVID-19; Romania; accelerated spread; delayed spread; empirical modeling; mortality.

Figure 1

Total reported cases and deaths for the first 440 days of the pandemic in Romania.

Figure 2

New daily reported cases (a) and new daily reported deaths (b) for the first 380 days of the pandemic in Romania.

Figure 3

(a) The total reported cases N_c(t) for the first 200 days of the pandemic in Romania, the accelerated phase (II) using Equation (3). (b) The total reported deaths N_d(t) for the first 200 days of the pandemic in Romania, the accelerated phase (II) using Equation (4).

Figure 4

Cumulative deaths N_d(t) versus the total reported cases Nc(t) for the first 350 days of the pandemic in Romania.

Figure 5

Mortality rate T(t) as a function of time for the first 350 days of the pandemic in Romania.

Figure 6

Total reported cases Nc(t) for the first 400 days for delayed phase (III) in symmetric behavior using Equation (14) and τ_c’ = 46 days.

Figure 7

Total reported cases Nc(t) of the first 400 days for delayed phase (III) in asymmetric behavior using Equation (16) with τ_c′ = 56 days and N_c∞ = 753,500.