Estimation of Real-World Vaccination Effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines against Delta and Omicron Variants in Japan

Abstract

A resurgence of COVID-19-positive cases has been observed in many countries in the latter half of 2021. The primary reasons for this resurgence are the waning immunity of vaccination after the second dose of vaccination and the changes in public behavior due to temporal convergence. The vaccination effectiveness for the omicron and delta variants has been reported from some countries, but it is still unclear for several other regions worldwide. Here, we numerically derived the effectiveness of vaccination for infection protection in individuals and populations against viral variants for the entire Japanese population (126 million). The waning immunity of vaccination for the delta variant of Japanese individuals was 93.8% (95% CI: 93.1−94.6%) among individuals <65 years of age and 95.0% (95% CI: 95.6−96.9%) among individuals ≥65 years of age. We found that waning immunity of vaccination in individuals >65 years of age was lower than in those <65 years of age, which may be attributable to human behavior and a higher vaccination rate among individuals >65 years of age. From the reported data of 25,187 positive cases with confirmed omicron variant in Tokyo in January 2022, the effectiveness of vaccination was also estimated at 62.1% (95% CI: 48−66%) compared to that of the delta variant. Derived effectiveness of vaccination would be useful to discuss the vaccination strategy for the booster shot, as well as the status of herd immunity.

Keywords: COVID-19; Japan; vaccination strategy; waning immunity.

Figure 1

Time course of SARS-CoV-2 sequences by variants in Japan.

Figure 2

Waning immunity of vaccination in Japan, for individuals over and under 65 years of age, with respect to protection against symptomatic infection by (a) delta and (b) omicron variants derived for Japanese population. Bars represent the standard deviation.

Figure 3

(a) Rate of vaccination and (b) population effectiveness of vaccination (PEV) for all ages, and those under and over 65 years of age for delta variant.