Elevated midtrimester maternal plasma cytokines and preterm birth in patients with cerclage

Abstract

Background: Cerclage is used for the prevention of spontaneous preterm birth; however, many patients at high risk of spontaneous preterm birth who have a cerclage in place eventually deliver before term. Although inflammation, measured by biomarkers (eg, cytokines), is a known risk factor for preterm delivery, evaluation of inflammation to determine pregnancy outcomes among patients with cerclage is poorly understood.

Objective: We sought to examine levels of maternal plasma inflammatory cytokines in the midtrimester among asymptomatic patients with a cervical cerclage (placed for any indication, including history, ultrasound, and examination indications) to evaluate the association between cytokine levels and preterm birth.

Study design: This was a prospective cohort study of singleton, nonanomalous pregnancies who had a cerclage placed at <24 weeks of gestation from 2015 to 2018 at a single tertiary institution. Maternal plasma was collected perioperatively whenever possible. A custom magnetic bead Luminex cytokine assay was used to measure plasma inflammatory cytokine levels from these stored samples. The primary outcome was preterm birth at <37 weeks of gestation. A statistical cut point was calculated for each cytokine level to assess its optimal sensitivity and specificity for spontaneous preterm birth prediction. Patients were classified as having a "high" or "low" result for each cytokine based on this cut point. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to estimate sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values for spontaneous preterm birth prediction. Cox proportional-hazards regression modeled the association between the number of "high" inflammatory cytokines and gestational age at delivery, adjusting for confounders. Additional analyses were performed on the subgroup of patients with history-indicated cerclage and those with an ultrasound- or examination-indicated cerclage.

Results: A total of 43 patients participated in this study: 20 (46.5%) had spontaneous preterm birth (median, 30.9 weeks of gestation; interquartile range, 28.4-35.0). Plasma samples were collected at a median of 0 (interquartile range, -2 to 17) days concerning cerclage placement and a median of 18 (interquartile range, 13-21) weeks of gestation. Based on the statistical cut point for each cytokine level, 7% of patients had zero, 20.9% had 1, 18.6% had 2, 20.9% had 3, and 32.6% had ≥4 "high" cytokine results. Each additional "high" cytokine level was associated with earlier delivery (hazard ratio, 1.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.25-1.81) even after controlling for ultrasound- or examination-indication for cerclage (hazard ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.95-3.15). The presence of ≥4 "high" cytokine levels was 70% sensitive and 74% specific for predicting spontaneous preterm birth (area under the curve, 0.846; 95% confidence interval, 0.728-0.964; positive predictive value, 70%; negative predictive value, 73.9%).

Conclusion: Among patients with a cervical cerclage, elevated midtrimester maternal plasma cytokine profiles were associated with subsequent preterm birth and can estimate the probability of preterm birth. Confirmation and refinement of this noninvasive panel may provide insight into improved selection of individuals who may benefit from cerclage placement and investigation of therapeutic strategies to mitigate midpregnancy inflammation.

Keywords: cerclage; cervical insufficiency; cytokines; inflammation; spontaneous preterm birth.

Figure 1.

Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Shown is the proportion undelivered by the number of elevated mid-trimester cytokines among (A) the entire cohort; (B) the subset with an ultrasound- or exam-indicated cerclage; and (C) the subset with a history- indicated cerclage

Figure 2.

Nomogram presenting scoring system to visually depict probability of preterm birth. In panel A, each patient is assigned 2 scores: one based on cerclage indication, and one based on the number of elevated cytokines. In panel B, the sum of those 2 scores is used to estimate the probability of preterm birth.