Unconditional cash transfers for reducing poverty and vulnerabilities: effect on use of health services and health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries
- PMID: 35348196
- PMCID: PMC8962215
- DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD011135.pub3
Unconditional cash transfers for reducing poverty and vulnerabilities: effect on use of health services and health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries
Abstract
Background: Unconditional cash transfers (UCTs; provided without obligation) for reducing poverty and vulnerabilities (e.g. orphanhood, old age, or HIV infection) are a social protection intervention addressing a key social determinant of health (income) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The relative effectiveness of UCTs compared with conditional cash transfers (CCTs; provided only if recipients follow prescribed behaviours, e.g. use a health service or attend school) is unknown.
Objectives: To assess the effects of UCTs on health services use and health outcomes in children and adults in LMICs. Secondary objectives are to assess the effects of UCTs on social determinants of health and healthcare expenditure, and to compare the effects of UCTs versus CCTs.
Search methods: For this update, we searched 15 electronic academic databases, including CENTRAL, MEDLINE and EconLit, in September 2021. We also searched four electronic grey literature databases, websites of key organisations and reference lists of previous systematic reviews, key journals and included study records.
Selection criteria: We included both parallel-group and cluster-randomised controlled trials (C-RCTs), quasi-RCTs, cohort studies, controlled before-and-after studies (CBAs), and interrupted time series studies of UCT interventions in children (0 to 17 years) and adults (≥ 18 years) in LMICs. Comparison groups received either no UCT, a smaller UCT or a CCT. Our primary outcomes were any health services use or health outcome.
Data collection and analysis: Two review authors independently screened potentially relevant records for inclusion, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. We obtained missing data from study authors if feasible. For C-RCTs, we generally calculated risk ratios for dichotomous outcomes from crude frequency measures in approximately correct analyses. Meta-analyses applied the inverse variance or Mantel-Haenszel method using a random-effects model. Where meta-analysis was impossible, we synthesised results using vote counting based on effect direction. We assessed the certainty of the evidence using GRADE.
Main results: We included 34 studies (25 studies of 20 C-RCTs, six CBAs, and three cohort studies) involving 1,140,385 participants (45,538 children, 1,094,847 adults) and 50,095 households in Africa, the Americas and South-East Asia in our meta-analyses and narrative syntheses. These analysed 29 independent data sets. The 24 UCTs identified, including one basic universal income intervention, were pilot or established government programmes or research experiments. The cash value was equivalent to 1.3% to 81.9% of the annualised gross domestic product per capita. All studies compared a UCT with no UCT; three studies also compared a UCT with a CCT. Most studies carried an overall high risk of bias (i.e. often selection or performance bias, or both). Most studies were funded by national governments or international organisations, or both. Throughout the review, we use the words 'probably' to indicate moderate-certainty evidence, 'may/maybe' for low-certainty evidence, and 'uncertain' for very low-certainty evidence. Health services use We assumed greater use of any health services to be beneficial. UCTs may not have impacted the likelihood of having used any health service in the previous 1 to 12 months, when participants were followed up between 12 and 24 months into the intervention (risk ratio (RR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 1.09; I2 = 2%; 5 C-RCTs, 4972 participants; low-certainty evidence). Health outcomes At one to two years, UCTs probably led to a clinically meaningful, very large reduction in the likelihood of having had any illness in the previous two weeks to three months (RR 0.79, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.92; I2 = 53%; 6 C-RCTs, 9367 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). UCTs may have increased the likelihood of having been food secure over the previous month, at 13 to 36 months into the intervention (RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.45; I2 = 85%; 5 C-RCTs, 2687 participants; low-certainty evidence). UCTs may have increased participants' level of dietary diversity over the previous week, when assessed with the Household Dietary Diversity Score and followed up 24 months into the intervention (mean difference (MD) 0.59 food categories, 95% CI 0.18 to 1.01; I2 = 79%; 4 C-RCTs, 9347 participants; low-certainty evidence). Despite several studies providing relevant evidence, the effects of UCTs on the likelihood of being moderately stunted and on the level of depression remain uncertain. We found no study on the effect of UCTs on mortality risk. Social determinants of health UCTs probably led to a clinically meaningful, moderate increase in the likelihood of currently attending school, when assessed at 12 to 24 months into the intervention (RR 1.06, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.09; I2 = 0%; 8 C-RCTs, 7136 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). UCTs may have reduced the likelihood of households being extremely poor, at 12 to 36 months into the intervention (RR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.97; I2 = 63%; 6 C-RCTs, 3805 participants; low-certainty evidence). The evidence was uncertain for whether UCTs impacted livestock ownership, participation in labour, and parenting quality. Healthcare expenditure Evidence from eight cluster-RCTs on healthcare expenditure was too inconsistent to be combined in a meta-analysis, but it suggested that UCTs may have increased the amount of money spent on health care at 7 to 36 months into the intervention (low-certainty evidence). Equity, harms and comparison with CCTs The effects of UCTs on health equity (or unfair and remedial health inequalities) were very uncertain. We did not identify any harms from UCTs. Three cluster-RCTs compared UCTs versus CCTs with regard to the likelihood of having used any health services or had any illness, or the level of dietary diversity, but evidence was limited to one study per outcome and was very uncertain for all three.
Authors' conclusions: This body of evidence suggests that unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) may not impact a summary measure of health service use in children and adults in LMICs. However, UCTs probably or may improve some health outcomes (i.e. the likelihood of having had any illness, the likelihood of having been food secure, and the level of dietary diversity), two social determinants of health (i.e. the likelihoods of attending school and being extremely poor), and healthcare expenditure. The evidence on the relative effectiveness of UCTs and CCTs remains very uncertain.
Copyright © 2022 The Cochrane Collaboration. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Conflict of interest statement
Pega: none known. Frank Pega is a technical officer for the World Health Organization but was an honorary research fellow for the University of Otago at the time of writing.
Pabayo: none known.
Benny: none known.
Lee: none known.
Lhachimi: none known.
Liu: none known.
Figures
Update of
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Unconditional cash transfers for reducing poverty and vulnerabilities: effect on use of health services and health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries.Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2017 Nov 15;11(11):CD011135. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD011135.pub2. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2017. Update in: Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2022 Mar 29;3:CD011135. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD011135.pub3. PMID: 29139110 Free PMC article. Updated.
References
References to studies included in this review
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Aizawa 2020 {published data only}
Akresh 2012 {published data only}
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Bazzi 2012 {published and unpublished data}
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Haushofer 2013 {published data only}
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Leroy 2010 {published data only}
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Luseno 2012 {published and unpublished data}
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Miller 2008 {published and unpublished data}
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Ohrnberger 2019 {published data only}
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Oxford Policy Management 2012 {published and unpublished data}
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Pellerano 2014 {published and unpublished data}
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Robertson 2012 {published and unpublished data}
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- Gregson S (Imperial College London, London, UK).[personal communication]. Conversation with: F Pega (University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand) 11 March 2015.
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- Robertson L, Mushati P, Eaton JW, Dumba L, Mavise G, Makoni JC, et al.Conditional cash transfers improve birth registration and school attendance amongst orphans and vulnerable children in Manicaland, Zimbabwe. Journal of the International AIDS Society 2012;15(Suppl 3):158-9.
Salinas‐Rodríguez 2014 {published data only}
Schady 2012 {published and unpublished data}
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- Schady N (Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, US).[personal communication]. Conversation with: F Pega (University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand) 25 March 2015.
Seidenfeld 2012 {published data only}
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- American Institutes for Research.Zambia’s Multiple Category Targeting Grant: 24-Month Impact Report. Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research, 2014.
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- American Institutes for Research.Zambia’s Multiple Category Targeting Grant: 36-Month Impact Report. Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research, 2015.
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- Ministry of Community Development and Social Welfare, Zambia.The Multiple Categorical Trageting Grant: A Comprehensive Summary of Impacts (2011-2014). Washintgon, DC: American Institutes for Resarch, 2016.
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- Seidenfeld D, Prencipe L, Handa S, Tembo G, Sherman D.Zambia’s Multiple Category Cash Transfer Program: Baseline Report. Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research, 2012.
Seidenfeld 2013 {published and unpublished data}
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- American Institutes for Research.Zambia’s Child Grant Program: 24-month Impact Report. Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research, 2013.
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- American Institutes for Research.Zambia’s Child Grant Program: 30-month Impact Report. Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research, 2014.
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- American Institutes for Research.Zambia’s Child Grant Program: 36-month Impact Report. Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research, 2014.
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- American Institutes for Research.Zambia’s Child Grant Program: 48-month Impact Report. Washington, DC: American Institutes for Research, 2016.
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- Chakrabarti A, Handa S, Natali L, Seidenfeld D, Tembo G, on behalf of the Zambia Cash Transfer Evaluation Team.More evidence on the relationship between cash transfers and child height. Journal of Development Effectiveness 2020;12(1):14-37. [DOI: 10.1080/19439342.2020.1731568] - DOI
Smith 2017 {published data only}
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- Smith LM, Hein NA, Bagenda DS.Cash Transfers and HIV/HSV-2 Prevalence: A Replication of a Cluster Randomized Trial in Malawi. 3ie Replication Paper 12. Washington, DC: International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie), 2017.
Tiwari 2019 {published and unpublished data}
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- Tiwari S (Skidmore College, Saratoga Springs, US).[personal communication]. Conversation with: F Pega (University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand) 18 February, 2021.
Wang 2019 {published data only}
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- Wang H, Luo J.The short-term impact of unconditional cash transfers: a replication study of a randomized controlled trial in Kenya. Journal of Development Effectiveness 2019;11(4):391-408.
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Ward 2010 {published and unpublished data}
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- Hurrell A, Ward P, Merttens F.Kenya OVC-CT Programme Operational and Impact Evaluation: Baseline Survey Report. Oxford (UK): Oxford Policy Management, 2008.
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References to studies excluded from this review
Aguila 2017 {published data only}
Akee 2013 {published data only}
Aker 2013 {published data only}
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- Aker J.Cash or coupons? Testing the impacts of cash versus vouchers in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development, 2013. CGD Working Paper 320.
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- Aker JC.Comparing cash and voucher transfers in a humanitarian context: evidence from the Democratic Republic of Congo. World Bank Economic Review 2017;31(1):44-70. [DOI: 10.1093/wber/lhv055] - DOI
Attanasio 2015 {published data only}
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- Attanasio OP, Oppedisano V, Vera-Hernández M.Should cash transfers be conditional? Conditionality, preventive care, and health outcomes. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 2015;7(3):25-43. [DOI: 10.1257/app.20130126] - DOI
Ayuku 2013 {published data only}
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- Ayuku D, Atwoli L, Ayaya S, Koech J, Nyandat J, Gisore P, et al.Do government cash transfers work to support households in caring for orphaned youth? Evidence from Western Kenya. Turkish Archives of Pediatrics 2013;48(Suppl 2):114.
Benedetti 2016 {published data only}
Benhassine 2013 {published data only}
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- Benhassine N, Devoto F, Duflo E, Dupas P, Pouliquen V.Turning a shove into a nudge? A "labelled cash transfer" for education. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 2015;7(3):86-125. [DOI: 10.1257/pol.20130225] - DOI
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- Benhassine N, Devoto F, Duflo E, Dupas P, Pouliquen V.Turning a shove into a nudge? A "labelled cash transfer" for education. Cambridge (MA): National Bureau of Economic Research; 2013. NBER Working Paper No. 19227.
Buller 2016 {published data only}
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- Buller AM, Hidrobo M, Peterman A, Heise L.The way to a man’s heart is through his stomach? A mixed methods study on causal mechanisms through which cash and in-kind food transfers decreased intimate partner violence. BMC Public Health 2016;16:488. [DOI: 10.1186/s12889-016-3129-3] - DOI - PMC - PubMed
Buser 2014 {published data only}
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- Buser T, Oosterbeek H, Plug E, Ponce J, Rosero J.The impact of positive and negative income changes on the height and weight of young children. Bonn (Germany): IZA; 2014. IZA Discussion Paper No. 8130.
Cluver 2013 {published data only}
Doocey 2017 {published data only}
Fenn 2017 {published data only}
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- Fenn B, Colbourn T, Dolan C, Pietzsch S, Sangrasi M, Shoham J.Impact evaluation of different cash-based intervention modalities on child and maternal nutritional status in Sindh Province, Pakistan, at 6 mo and at 1 y: a cluster randomised controlled trial. PLoS Medicine 2017;14(5):e1002305. [DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002305] - DOI - PMC - PubMed
Galárraga 2014 {published data only}
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- Pega F, Walter S, Liu SY, Pababyo R, Lhachimi SK, Saith R.Unconditional cash transfers for reducing poverty and vulnerabilities: effect on use of health services and health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2014, Issue 6. Art. No: CD011135. [DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD011135] - DOI - PMC - PubMed
Pega 2017
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- Pega F, Liu SY, Walter S, Pabayo R, Saith R, Lhachimi SK.Unconditional cash transfers for reducing poverty and vulnerabilities: effect on use of health services and health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2017, Issue 11. Art. No: CD011135. [DOI: 10.1002/14651858.CD011135.pub2] - DOI - PMC - PubMed
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