Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

Abstract

In recent years, fertility rates have declined in most wealthy countries. This phenomenon has largely been explained by focusing on the rise of economic uncertainty. We contribute to this debate by arguing that, under uncertain conditions, narratives of the future-i.e., socially conveyed imagined futures-impact individuals' decision-making about childbearing. To assess this impact, we conducted (for the first time in fertility intention research) a controlled laboratory experiment in two contrasting settings: Florence (Italy, N = 800) and Oslo (Norway, N = 874). Individuals were randomly exposed to a specific positive or negative future economic scenario (treatments) and were compared with individuals who were not exposed to any scenario (control group). Participants were then asked whether they intended to have a child in the next three years. The results showed a clear causal impact of narratives of the future on fertility intentions among the participants. Moreover, when the actual economic condition at the macro- (country context) or micro-level (labor-market status and characteristics) was more favorable, negative narratives of the future played a more crucial role. Conversely, when the actual economic conditions were less favorable, positive narratives of the future proved especially important. We conclude that, in the era of global uncertainty, individuals respond to more than their actual situation and constraints; narratives of the future create a distance experience from the daily routine that plays a potent role by inhibiting or facilitating fertility decision-making.

Keywords: Expectations; Fertility intentions; Laboratory experimentation; Narratives of the future; Uncertainty.

Fig. 1

Stylized representation of the role of economic uncertainty in the fertility decision-making process

Fig. 2

Mock newspaper article describing the future economic situation of the country; negative (a) and positive (b) scenarios

Fig. 3

Predicted level of fertility intentions by treatment, gender, and country; with a 95% confidence band (N: Italy = 800; Norway = 874). For the pooled model, estimates from regression models include robust standard errors at the couple level. Models include all variables listed in Table 4 (“Appendix 2”)

Fig. 4

Predicted level of fertility intentions by treatment, country, and employment condition; with a 95% confidence band. Results from OLS regression on fertility intentions (0–10) (N: Italy = 800; Norway = 874). Notes: Estimates from regression models with robust standard errors at the couple level. Models include all variables listed in Table 4 (“Appendix 2”)