Integrating presence-only and occupancy data to model habitat use for the northernmost population of jaguars

Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become an essential tool for the management and conservation of imperiled species. However, many at-risk species are rare and characterized by limited data on their spatial distribution and habitat relationships. This has led to the development of SDMs that integrate multiple types and sources of data to leverage more information and provide improved predictions of habitat associations. We developed a novel integrated species distribution model to predict habitat suitability for jaguars (Panthera onca) in the border region between northern Mexico and the southwestern USA. Our model combined presence-only and occupancy data to identify key environmental correlates, and we used model results to develop a probability of use map. We adopted a logistic regression modeling framework, which we found to be more straightforward and less computationally intensive to fit than Poisson point process-based models. Model results suggested that high terrain ruggedness and the presence of riparian vegetation were most strongly related to habitat use by jaguars in our study region. Our best model, on average, predicted that there is currently 25,463 km² of usable habitat in our study region. The United States portion of the study region, which makes up 38.6% of the total area, contained 40.6% of the total usable habitat. Even though there have been few detections of jaguars in the southwestern USA in recent decades, our results suggest that protection of currently suitable habitats, along with increased conservation efforts, could significantly contribute to the recovery of jaguars in the USA.

Keywords: Bayesian model; Mexico; Panthera onca; United States; integrated species distribution model; jaguar; occupancy; presence only.