Prevalence and 10-Year Stability of Personality Disorders From Adolescence to Young Adulthood in a High-Risk Sample

Abstract

Background: With the implementation of the 11th edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11) in early 2022, there will be a radical change in the framework and process for diagnosing personality disorders (PDs), indicating a transition from the categorical to the dimensional model. Despite increasing evidence that PDs are not as stable as previously assumed, the long-term stability of PDs remains under major debate. The aim of the current paper was to investigate the categorical and dimensional mean-level and rank-order stability of PDs from adolescence into young adulthood in a high-risk sample.

Methods: In total, 115 young adults with a history of residential child welfare and juvenile-justice placements in Switzerland were included in the current study. PDs were assessed at baseline and at a 10-year follow-up. On a categorical level, mean-level stability was assessed through the proportion of enduring cases from baseline to follow-up. Rank-order stability was assessed through Cohen's κ and tetrachoric correlation coefficients. On a dimensional level, the magnitude of change between the PD trait scores at baseline and at follow-up was measured by Cohen's d. Rank-order stability was assessed through Spearman's ρ.

Results: The prevalence rate for any PD was 20.0% at baseline and 30.4% at follow-up. The most frequently diagnosed disorders were antisocial, borderline, and obsessive-compulsive PDs, both at baseline and at follow-up. On a categorical level, the mean-level stability of any PD was only moderate, and the mean-level stability of specific PDs was low, except of schizoid PD. Likewise, the rank-order stability of any PD category was moderate, while ranging from low to high for individual PD diagnoses. On a dimensional level, scores increased significantly for most PDs, except for histrionic traits, which decreased significantly from baseline to follow-up. Effect sizes were generally low. The rank-order stability for dimensional scores ranged from low to moderate.

Conclusion: The findings indicate low to moderate stability of Pds and Pd traits from adolescence to adulthood, which supports the growing evidence that categorical diagnoses of Pds are quite unstable. This in turn, emphasizes the use of the upcoming ICD-11 that Acknowledgments Pds to be only "relatively" stable.

Keywords: high-risk sample; personality disorders (PDs); prevalence; stability; youth.