Usefulness of Electoral Models for COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution

Abstract

Purpose of review: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a remarkably accelerated development of vaccines worldwide. However, an effective distribution system is crucial for vaccination at a national level. Ecuador was one of the first Latin American countries to be most severely affected by the pandemic. It has been struggling to expand its vaccination drive and requires a strategy that provides an achievable vaccination rate and maintains its primary care services. This study aims to provide an efficient vaccination model to achieve herd immunity by utilizing the country's existing infrastructure (the centralized electoral system) for mass vaccination.

Recent findings: The national electoral data from 2017 and 2021 were used to create estimates for the proposed vaccination model. Two model variations, total personnel, needed, and the number of days needed to vaccinate 50%, 75%, and 100% of the population were considered. The numbers of vaccines needed, and vaccination sites were estimated based on the current number of registered voters and polling stations. The results from the proposed model show that 17,892,353 people can be vaccinated, at 40,093 polling stations, by 90,209 personnel if one vaccinator was available per polling station.

Summary: Based on this model, even a conservative estimate shows that 12.56 days are needed to achieve herd immunity, and 16.74 days are needed to vaccinate the entire population of Ecuador. Additionally, we propose that this vaccination model can be used as a blueprint for any country to address similar catastrophes in the future.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40475-022-00251-y.

Keywords: COVID-19; Electoral model; Epidemiology; Mass vaccination.

Fig. 1

The entity-relationship diagram of the CNE data model

Fig. 2

A summary of the assignment process. Patient information is provided in a secure portal. When specific information is identified, a patient receives a notification about the location and time

Fig. 3

An algorithm to determine if specific patient populations require the hospital setting

Fig. 4

A summary of the vaccination and post-vaccination stages. When a patient arrives at an assigned vaccination site, a “verification team” serves to verify the patient’s information. The patient then receives a vaccine and immediately undergoes a 15–20-min observation. When no immediate reactions are observed, the patient then schedules a second appointment and is allowed to go home

Fig. 5

Animated interface of the simulation model made in Arena software