Estimates of the Nutritional Impact of Non-Participation in the National School Lunch Program during COVID-19 School Closures

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in widespread school closures, reducing access to school meals for millions of students previously participating in the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) National School Lunch Program (NSLP). School-prepared meals are, on average, more nutritious than home-prepared meals. In the absence of recent data measuring changes in children's diets during the pandemic, this article aims to provide conservative, back-of-the-envelope estimates of the nutritional impacts of the pandemic for school-aged children in the United States. We used administrative data from the USDA on the number of NSLP lunches served in 2019 and 2020 and nationally representative data from the USDA School Nutrition and Meal Cost Study on the quality of school-prepared and home-prepared lunches. We estimate changes in lunchtime calories and nutrients consumed by NSLP participants from March to November 2020, compared to the same months in 2019. We estimate that an NSLP participant receiving no school meals would increase their caloric consumption by 640 calories per week and reduce their consumption of nutrients such as calcium and vitamin D. Because 27 to 78 million fewer lunches were served per week in March-November 2020 compared to the previous year, nationally, students may have consumed 3 to 10 billion additional calories per week. As students return to school, it is vital to increase school meal participation and update nutrition policies to address potentially widening nutrition disparities.

Keywords: COVID-19; National School Lunch Program; diet quality; disparities; obesity; school closures; school lunch; school meal.

Figure A1

Meal pattern requirements ^† for meals served through the National School Lunch Program and Seamless Summer Option * compared to Summer Food Service Program. Adapted with permission from the Healthy Eating Research Strengthening the Impact of USDA’s Child Nutrition Summer Feeding Programs During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic brief [47]. Notes: * Sites serving meals using the Seamless Summer Option of the National School Lunch Program are traditionally required to adhere to the School Breakfast Program and National School Lunch Program meal pattern requirements. † Due to COVID, the US Department of Agriculture granted a nationwide waiver providing states the flexibility to serve meals that do not meet meal pattern requirements when needed [48].

Figure 1

Total monthly lunchtime meals served and excess calories consumed by National School Lunch Program participants nationwide due to COVID related school closures, comparing March-November 2019 versus 2020. SOURCE: Data are the authors’ calculations based on lunchtime dietary recall data from the School Nutrition and Meal Cost Study, School Year 2014–2015 and the US Department of Agriculture November Keydata Report count of meals reimbursed monthly through the National School Lunch Program and Summer Food Service Program. Notes: Estimates assume National School Lunch Program lunches are replaced by emergency meals that meet National School Lunch Program standards, and that meals not replaced are equivalent in nutritional quality to home-prepared meals.