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. 2022;45(Suppl 1):235-250.
doi: 10.1007/s40840-022-01287-z. Epub 2022 Apr 13.

Regressive Class Modelling for Predicting Trajectories of COVID-19 Fatalities Using Statistical and Machine Learning Models

Rafiqul I Chowdhury  1 , M Tariqul Hasan  2 , Gary Sneddon  3
Affiliations

Regressive Class Modelling for Predicting Trajectories of COVID-19 Fatalities Using Statistical and Machine Learning Models

Rafiqul I Chowdhury et al. Bull Malays Math Sci Soc. 2022.

Abstract

The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 virus) pandemic has led to a substantial loss of human life worldwide by providing an unparalleled challenge to the public health system. The economic, psychological, and social disarray generated by the COVID-19 pandemic is devastating. Public health experts and epidemiologists worldwide are struggling to formulate policies on how to control this pandemic as there is no effective vaccine or treatment available which provide long-term immunity against different variants of COVID-19 and to eradicate this virus completely. As the new cases and fatalities are recorded daily or weekly, the responses are likely to be repeated or longitudinally correlated. Thus, studying the impact of available covariates and new cases on deaths from COVID-19 repeatedly would provide significant insights into this pandemic's dynamics. For a better understanding of the dynamics of spread, in this paper, we study the impact of various risk factors on the new cases and deaths over time. To do that, we propose a marginal-conditional based joint modelling approach to predict trajectories, which is crucial to the health policy planners for taking necessary measures. The conditional model is a natural choice to study the underlying property of dependence in consecutive new cases and deaths. Using this model, one can examine the relationship between outcomes and predictors, and it is possible to calculate risks of the sequence of events repeatedly. The advantage of repeated measures is that one can see how individual responses change over time. The predictive accuracy of the proposed model is also compared with various machine learning techniques. The machine learning algorithms used in this paper are extended to accommodate repeated responses. The performance of the proposed model is illustrated using COVID-19 data collected from the Texas Health and Human Services.

Keywords: Deep learning techniques; Joint modelling; Model accuracy; Repeated measures; SARS-CoV-2 virus.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interestThe authors declare that they do not have any conflict of interest to declare.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Trajectory path for three consecutive weeks for the ith county
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Trajectory of conditional probabilities for Harris county using four models
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Trajectory of joint probabilities for Harris county using four models
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Trajectory of conditional probabilities for Andrews county using four models
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Trajectory of joint probabilities for Andrews county using four models
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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