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. 2022 Apr 20;17(4):e0256052.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0256052. eCollection 2022.

New land-use change scenarios for Brazil: Refining global SSPs with a regional spatially-explicit allocation model

Francisco Gilney Silva Bezerra  1 , Celso Von Randow  1 , Talita Oliveira Assis  1 , Karine Rocha Aguiar Bezerra  1 , Graciela Tejada  1 , Aline Anderson Castro  1 , Diego Melo de Paula Gomes  1 , Rodrigo Avancini  1 , Ana Paula Aguiar  1   2
Affiliations

New land-use change scenarios for Brazil: Refining global SSPs with a regional spatially-explicit allocation model

Francisco Gilney Silva Bezerra et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

The future of land use and cover change in Brazil, particularly due to deforestation and forest restoration processes, is critical for the future of global climate and biodiversity, given the richness of its five biomes. These changes in Brazil depend on the interlink between global factors due to its role as one of the main exporters of commodities globally and the national to local institutional, socioeconomic, and biophysical contexts. Aiming to develop scenarios that consider the balance between global (e.g., GDP growth, population growth, per capita consumption of agricultural products, international trade policies, and climatic conditions) and local factors (e.g., land use, agrarian structure, agricultural suitability, protected areas, distance to roads, and other infrastructure projects), a new set of land-use change scenarios for Brazil were developed that aligned with the global structure Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) developed by the global change research community. The narratives of the new scenarios align with SSP1/RCP 1.9 (Sustainable development scenario), SSP2/RCP 4.5 (Middle of the road scenario), and SSP3/RCP 7.0 (Strong inequality scenario). The scenarios were developed by combining the LuccME spatially explicit land change allocation modeling framework and the INLAND surface model to incorporate the climatic variables in water deficit. Based on detailed biophysical, socioeconomic, and institutional factors for each biome in Brazil, we have created spatially explicit scenarios until 2050, considering the following classes: forest vegetation, grassland vegetation, planted pasture, agriculture, a mosaic of small land uses, and forestry. The results aim to detail global models regionally. They could be used regionally to support decision-making and enrich the global analysis.

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Conflict of interest statement

NO authors have competing interests.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Schematic representation of the development of regional land use and land cover scenarios.
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs).
Fig 2
Fig 2. Representation of LuccMEBR scenarios.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Representation of the factors integration into the cellular space.
a) Hydroelectric plants, b) Protected areas, c) Federal and State highways, and d) Proportion of large agricultural establishments. The source of States boundaries is according to IBGE [31].
Fig 4
Fig 4. Percentage of forest vegetation, grassland vegetation and pasture planted observed versus simulated in 10 x 10 km² cells in 2014 and the spatial distribution of errors of omission and commission.
The source of States boundaries is according to IBGE [31].
Fig 5
Fig 5. Percentage of Agriculture, Mosaic of occupation and Forestry observed versus simulated in 10 x 10 km² cells in 2014 and the spatial distribution of errors of omission and commission.
The source of States boundaries is according to IBGE [31].
Fig 6
Fig 6. Spatial distribution of areas and land use according to the scenarios from 2000 to 2050.
The source of States boundaries is according to IBGE [31].
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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