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. 2022 Apr 20;12(1):6535.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-10284-y.

Coupling reconstruction of atmospheric hydrological profile and dry-up risk prediction in a typical lake basin in arid area of China

Jie Wang  1 , Dongwei Liu  2   3   4 , Songni Tian  1 , Jiali Ma  1 , Lixin Wang  1   5   6
Affiliations

Coupling reconstruction of atmospheric hydrological profile and dry-up risk prediction in a typical lake basin in arid area of China

Jie Wang et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

Arid area is very sensitive to global warming and are extremely vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, the water resources system in the arid area is fragile and will undergo tremendous changes with climate change. Therefore, the interaction of climate and hydrology in arid area has an important impact on the formation of regional microclimate and hydrological changes. Daihai Lake is a typical closed inland lake in arid area of China, and a key area for ecological protection in North China. In this paper, WRF-Hydro model is used to simulate the climate hydrological coupling situation of Daihai Basin from 1980 to 2020, and the coupling results are verified and calibrated by meteorological statistics, runoff calculation and remote sensing analysis. Based on the synopsis of climate and hydrology in the past 40 years, the causes and future trends of the hydrological elements in Daihai Basin are analyzed. Through the analysis, it is found that the interannual variation of precipitation in Daihai Basin is sharp, with 401.75 mm as the average from 1980 to 1994; and drastic fluctuations from 1995 to 2011, with a difference of nearly 400 mm between the interannual maximum and minimum; From 2012 to 2020, the fluctuation is small. Although the interannual variation of evaporation fluctuated, it showed an upward trend with a slope of 8.855 mm/year. The annual average temperature showed an obvious upward trend with a slope of 0.040 °C/year. From 1980 to 2020, the inflow of Daihai Lake shows a downward trend; Since 2013, the runoff into the lake has tended to be flat. Climate change and human activities are the decisive factors leading to the change of water quantity in Daihai, among which human activities play a greater role. Cultivated land irrigation and industrial water use are highly correlated with the lake discharge, and these two factors have a great influence on the lake discharge. If the current agricultural and industrial water consumption does not increase, Daihai still has a lifespan of nearly 120 years. If human activities do not change and any protective measures are not taken in time, under the background of global climate change, the flow of the Daihai Lake into the lake will be reduced to zero in 2025, and the Daihai Lake will completely dry up in 2031-2033. The study of climate hydrological coupling of long time series in Daihai Basin can not only make up for the lack of runoff data, but also provide the basis for water resources management, disaster prevention and mitigation.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Overview of the study area: (a) Geographical location of the Daihai Basin; (b) Land Use in the Daihai Basin.
Figure 2
Figure 2
(a) Coverage and geographic location of spatially nested domains (b) Topographic of the Daihai Basin.
Figure 3
Figure 3
(a) Comparison between WRF-HYDRO simulation and measured annual precipitation in Daihai; (b) Comparison of runoff simulation and remote sensing estimation in Daihai Lake; (c) Modified runoff simulation and remote sensing estimation in Daihai Lake.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Spatial comparison of WRF-HYDRO simulation and interpolation of annual precipitation in Daihai.
Figure 5
Figure 5
(a) Distribution curve of annual precipitation in Daihai Basin; (b) Distribution curve of annual mean monthly precipitation in Daihai Basin.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Spatial distribution of annual precipitation in Daihai Basin.
Figure 7
Figure 7
(a) Change of runoff in Daihai Lake over the years; (b) Changes of lake area in Daihai over the years; (c) Changes of lake water level in Daihai over the years; (d) Changes of volume water in Daihai Lake over the years.
Figure 8
Figure 8
Spatial distribution of surface runoff in Daihai Basin.
Figure 9
Figure 9
Spatial distribution of surface runoff in different seasons in Daihai Basin.
Figure 10
Figure 10
Perennial (a) evaporation (b) annual average temperature (c) annual average wind speed change in Daihai Basin.
Figure 11
Figure 11
Perennial (a) cultivated land area (b) industrial water consumption (c) total population change curve in Daihai Basin.
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References

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