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. 2022 Apr;27(16):2100619.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.16.2100619.

Seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus and its association with meteorological factors in 13 European countries, week 40 2010 to week 39 2019

You Li  1   2 , Xin Wang  1   2 , Eeva K Broberg  3 , Harry Campbell  2 , Harish Nair  2 ; European RSV Surveillance Network  4
Collaborators, Affiliations

Seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus and its association with meteorological factors in 13 European countries, week 40 2010 to week 39 2019

You Li et al. Euro Surveill. 2022 Apr.

Abstract

BackgroundRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the predominant cause of clinical pneumonia among infants and young children, often peaking during the winter months in temperate regions.AimTo describe RSV seasonality in 13 European countries and examine its association with meteorological factors.MethodsWe included weekly RSV seasonality data from 13 European countries between week 40 2010 and week 39 2019. Using local weighted regression method, we modelled weekly RSV activity with meteorological factors using data from the 2010/11 to the 2017/18 season. We predicted the weekly RSV activity of the 2018/19 season across 41 European countries and validated our prediction using empirical data.ResultsAll countries had annual wintertime RSV seasons with a longitudinal gradient in RSV onset (Pearson's correlation coefficient, r = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.60 to 0.80). The RSV season started 3.8 weeks later (95% CI: -0.5 to 8.0) in countries in the eastern vs western parts of Europe, and the duration ranged from 8-18 weeks across seasons and countries. Lower temperature and higher relative humidity were associated with higher RSV activity, with a 14-day lag time. Through external validation, the prediction error in RSV season onset was -2.4 ± 3.2 weeks. Similar longitudinal gradients in RSV onset were predicted by our model for the 2018/19 season (r = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.16 to 0.66).ConclusionMeteorological factors, such as temperature and relative humidity, could be used for early warning of RSV season onset. Our findings may inform healthcare services planning and optimisation of RSV immunisation strategies in Europe.

Keywords: Europe; Respiratory syncytial virus; humidity; seasonality; temperature.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: YL reports grants from World Health Organization (WHO) and Wellcome Trust, outside the submitted work. HC reports grants from IMI, grants from National Institute of Health Research (NIHR), grants and personal fees from WHO, grants and personal fees from Sanofi, and grants from Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF), outside the submitted work. HN reports grants from IMI, grants from WHO, personal fees from BMGF, grants and personal fees from Sanofi, grants from NIHR, personal fees from Janssen, personal fees from AbbVie, and grants and personal fees from Foundation for Influenza Epidemiology, outside the submitted work. XW and EB have nothing to declare.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in 13 European countries, week 40 2010–week 39 2019
Figure 2
Figure 2
Association between meteorological factors and respiratory syncytial virus activity from 13 European countries, week 40 2010–week 39 2019
Figure 3
Figure 3
Comparison of respiratory syncytial virus activity between model prediction and observation in 8 European countries, 2018/19 season
Figure 4
Figure 4
Model-predicted weekly percentage of respiratory syncytial virus cases of all annual cases in 41 European countries, 2018/19 season
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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