Development of Fertility, Social Status, and Social Trust of Farmers

Abstract

Fertility, social status, and social trust are main social choice behaviors of Chinese farmers. This paper adopts the childbearing-value logic to establish a theoretical model of farmers' childbearing-social status-social trust choices to examine the influence of farmers' childbearing and social status on farmers' social trust. The theoretical model showed that farmers will rationally choose the number of children to bear, emotional value, social value, economic value, social status, and social trust. The fertility of farmers' children is actually a trade-off between quantity and value, and the fertility behavior affects social status through the direct mechanism of the number of children and the value of the adjustment mechanism, and together with the social status, through the direct mechanism, the adjustment mechanism of the number of children, the intermediate mechanism of social status, and the mixed adjustment mechanism. Asymmetry affects social trust equilibrium. Empirical research based on the CFPS (China Family Panel Studies) data in 2018 showed that farmers' children quantity primarily inhibits, through the adjustment mechanism of children's value-social status, social status and social trust; it exerts no direct impact or mediating effect on the social status. The economic value of children does not affect the social status, but it affects social trust through a positive child quantity adjustment mechanism, a negative social status mediation mechanism, and a negative mixed mediation mechanism. The social value of children affects social trust by the positive direct mechanism and the negative children quantity adjustment mechanism, as well as social trust by the negative direct mechanism, children quantity adjustment mechanism, children quantity-social status mixed adjustment mediating mechanism, and the positive social status-mediated mechanism. The emotional value of children affects the social status through the positive direct mechanism, as well as social trust through the positive direct mechanism, social status-mediated mechanism, and negative child quantity adjustment mechanism, and negative mixed mediation mechanism. Furthermore, social status positively impacts social trust rather than a symmetric transmission of the mediating effect of children's value and the quantity adjustment effect of children's value. However, no mediating effect of social trust was observed on children quantity. Social development leads to structural changes in the fertility value of farmers' children, which makes farmers prefer their children's social and economic value, exerting a complex impact on their own social status and social trust.

Keywords: children quantity of farmers; economic value; emotional value; social status; social trust; social value.

Figure 1

Theoretical mechanisms and effects of fertility, social status, and farmer social trust influence. Note: (1) E, S, and q denote the economic, social, and emotional values of children’s fertility; n represents the number of children, SD represents social status, and XR represents social trust; (2) D stands for direct mechanism; T_nd represents the child’s value–social status adjustment mechanism, T_nx represents the child’s value–social trust adjustment mechanism, Z represents the intermediary mechanism, and TZ represents the mixed adjustment intermediary mechanism; (3) “*” indicates that the direction of action of the mechanism depends on the combination of parameters, and the direction is uncertain, and “+” indicates positive effect and “–” indicates negative effect.

Figure 2

The children quantity moderating effect model of fertility value and social trust.

Figure 3

Social status–mediated effect model of fertility value influencing social trust.

Figure 4

Children quantity–social status mixed moderation mediating effect model of fertility influencing social trust.

Figure 5

The actual mechanism and transmission path of children’s value influencing farmers’ social trust. Note: (1) E, S, and q denote the economic, social, and emotional values of children’s fertility; n represents the number of children, SD represents social status, and XR represents social trust; (2) D signifies direct mechanism, T_nd represents the child’s value–social status adjustment mechanism, T_nx represents the child’s value–social trust adjustment mechanism, Z denotes the intermediary mechanism, and TZ indicates the mixed adjustment intermediary mechanism; (3) “*” indicates that the direction of action of the mechanism depends on the combination of parameters, and if the direction is uncertain, “+” indicates positive effect, “−” indicates negative effect and “×” indicates that the empirical test has no significant effect.