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. 2022 Apr 22;22(1):397.
doi: 10.1186/s12879-022-07378-3.

Ten years countdown to hepatitis C elimination in Belgium: a mathematical modeling approach

Dana Busschots  1   2 , Erwin Ho #  3 , Sarah Blach  4 , Frederik Nevens  5 , Homie Razavi  4 , Brieuc Van Damme  6   7 , Thomas Vanwolleghem #  3   8 , Geert Robaeys  9   10   5
Affiliations

Ten years countdown to hepatitis C elimination in Belgium: a mathematical modeling approach

Dana Busschots et al. BMC Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: Chronic infection with the hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains a worldwide health problem. As a result, the World Health Organization (WHO) has set elimination targets by 2030. This study aims to examine the position of Belgium in meeting the WHO's targets by 2030.

Methods: A Markov disease progression model, constructed in Microsoft Excel, was utilized to quantify the size of the HCV-infected population, by the liver disease stages, from 2015 to 2030. Two scenarios were developed to (1) forecast the disease burden in Belgium under the 2019 Base and (2) see what is needed to achieve the WHO targets.

Results: It was estimated that the number of HCV RNA-positive individuals in Belgium in 2015 was 18,800. To achieve the WHO goals, Belgium needs to treat at least 1200 patients per year. This will only be feasible if the number of screening tests increases.

Conclusions: Belgium is on target to reach the WHO targets by 2030 but will have to make sustained efforts. However, eradicating HCV requires policy changes to significantly increase prevention, screening, and treatment, alongside public health promotion, to raise awareness among high-risk populations and health care providers.

Keywords: Belgium; Disease elimination; Health policy; Hepatitis C virus.

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Conflict of interest statement

D.B. has received travel grants from AbbVie and Gilead Sciences; S.B. has received research grants from Gilead, and AbbVie; F.N. has received research grants, consultancy agreements and travel grants from UCB, Ipsen, Roche, Astellas, Ferring, Novartis, Janssen-Cilag, AbbVie, Gilead, CAF, Intercept, Gore, Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS), MSD, Promethera Biosciences, Ono Pharma, Durect; H.R. has received research grants from Gilead, AbbVie and Pfizer; B.V.D. has received consultancy agreements for AbbVie, Gilead Sciences and MSD; T.V. is the recipient of a senior clinical research mandate from the FWO Flanders (18B2821N) and has participated in Advisory Committees or Review Panels for: Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Gilead Sciences, AbbVie, BMS, WL Gore. He has also received grant/research support from: Gilead Sciences, Roche, BMS and speaking and teaching support from: Gilead Sciences, BMS; G.R. has received research grants from AbbVie and Gilead Sciences, Janssen Pharmaceuticals, MSD, and consultancy agreements for AbbVie, BMS, Gilead Sciences and MSD. All other co-authors report no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Cascade of care for hepatitis C in 2019 in Belgium
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Graphs representing new infections, mortality and cumulative treatment rate for both scenarios
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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