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. 2022 Apr 20:2022:2360478.
doi: 10.1155/2022/2360478. eCollection 2022.

Development and Validation of the RCOS Prognostic Index: A Bedside Multivariable Logistic Regression Model to Predict Hypoxaemia or Death in Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Gerardo Alvarez-Uria  1 , Sumanth Gandra  2 , Venkata R Gurram  3 , Raghu P Reddy  4 , Manoranjan Midde  1 , Praveen Kumar  5 , Ketty E Arce  6
Affiliations

Development and Validation of the RCOS Prognostic Index: A Bedside Multivariable Logistic Regression Model to Predict Hypoxaemia or Death in Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infection

Gerardo Alvarez-Uria et al. Interdiscip Perspect Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Introduction: Previous COVID-19 prognostic models have been developed in hospital settings and are not applicable to COVID-19 cases in the general population. There is an urgent need for prognostic scores aimed to identify patients at high risk of complications at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis.

Methods: The RDT COVID-19 Observational Study (RCOS) collected clinical data from patients with COVID-19 admitted regardless of the severity of their symptoms in a general hospital in India. We aimed to develop and validate a simple bedside prognostic score to predict the risk of hypoxaemia or death.

Results: 4035 patients were included in the development cohort and 2046 in the validation cohort. The primary outcome occurred in 961 (23.8%) and 548 (26.8%) patients in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The final model included 12 variables: age, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory rate, aspartate transaminase, lactate dehydrogenase, urea, C-reactive protein, sodium, lymphocyte count, neutrophil count, and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio. In the validation cohort, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) was 0.907 (95% CI, 0.892-0.922), and the Brier Score was 0.098. The decision curve analysis showed good clinical utility in hypothetical scenarios where the admission of patients was decided according to the prognostic index. When the prognostic index was used to predict mortality in the validation cohort, the AUROCC was 0.947 (95% CI, 0.925-0.97) and the Brier score was 0.0188.

Conclusions: The RCOS prognostic index could help improve the decision making in the current COVID-19 pandemic, especially in resource-limited settings with poor healthcare infrastructure such as India. However, implementation in other settings is needed to cross-validate and verify our findings.

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Conflict of interest statement

All authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Flowchart of patients.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Discrimination (a), calibration (b), distribution of cases (c), and predicted probability of death or hypoxaemia (lower panel line) of the predictive model in the validation cohort.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Sensitivity and specificity (a) and negative and positive predictive value (b) in the validation cohort. Y-axis represents proportions; X-axis represents the prognostic index.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Decision curves. Net benefit (a) and number of interventions avoided (b) in the validation cohort. Y-axis represents the threshold probability of hypoxaemia or death given by the prognostic index score, which is mentioned below between brackets.
Figure 5
Figure 5
Discrimination (a), calibration (b), distribution of cases (c), and predicted probability (lower panel line) of the model to predict mortality in the validation cohort.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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