Hawai'i Physician Workforce Assessment 2020

Abstract

The Hawai'i Physician Workforce project, launched in 2010, investigates state physician workforce trends. Over the past decade, workforce demands have continued to climb as the state struggles to maintain the physician supply. This article describes the current state of the physician workforce, the physician age landscape, past trends, as well as initial changes to the physician supply with the COVID-19 pandemic. Data on practice location, full time equivalency of time spent providing patient care in Hawai'i, and specialty of non-military physicians were clarified and informed via survey, internet search, and direct calling methodologies. A proprietary microsimulation modeling methodology was used to assess physician demand. The current estimated physician shortage is between 710 and 1,008 full time equivalents, the largest shortage in a decade. The unmet demand for numbers of additional physicians is greatest on the largely urban island of O'ahu, however O'ahu's neighboring islands have the largest shortages by percentage of demand. In fact, Hawai'i island has over a 50% shortage of physicians for the first time since the supply has been calculated starting in 2010. Primary care has the greatest demand with a statewide shortage of 412 full time equivalents. The average age of physicians in Hawai'i is 54 compared to the national average of 52. The authors estimate that more than 52% of providers are utilizing telehealth and that 10% of providers have retired or closed their practices since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Hawai'i is now in an urgent state of need for recruitment and retention of physicians.

Keywords: Physician supply; demand; healthcare; providers; shortage; workforce.

Figure 1.

Hawai‘i Physician Supply and Demand Trends 2010-2020