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. 2022 Apr 6;5(4):1710.
doi: 10.23889/ijpds.v5i4.1710. eCollection 2020.

Estimating surge in COVID-19 cases, hospital resources and PPE demand with the interactive and locally-informed COVID-19 Health System Capacity Planning Tool

Olga Krylova  1 , Omar Kazmi  1 , Hui Wang  1 , Kelvin Lam  1 , Chloe Logar-Henderson  1 , Katerina Gapanenko  1
Affiliations

Estimating surge in COVID-19 cases, hospital resources and PPE demand with the interactive and locally-informed COVID-19 Health System Capacity Planning Tool

Olga Krylova et al. Int J Popul Data Sci. .

Abstract

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic revealed an urgent need for analytic tools to help health system leaders plan for surges in hospital capacity. Our objective was to develop a practical and locally informed Tool to help explore the effects of public health interventions on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and create scenarios to project potential surges in hospital admissions and resource demand.

Methods: Our Excel-based Tool uses a modified S(usceptible)-E(xposed)-I(nfected)-R(emoved) model with vaccination to simulate the potential spread of COVID-19 cases in the community and subsequent demand for hospitalizations, intensive care unit beds, ventilators, health care workers, and personal protective equipment. With over 40+ customizable parameters, planners can adapt the Tool to their jurisdiction and changes in the pandemic.

Results: We showcase the Tool using data for Ontario, Canada. Using healthcare utilization data to fit hospitalizations and ICU cases, we illustrate how public health interventions influenced the COVID-19 reproduction number and case counts. We also demonstrate the Tool's ability to project a potential epidemic trajectory and subsequent demand for hospital resources. Using local data, we built three planning scenarios for Ontario for a 3-month period. Our worst-case scenario accurately projected the surge in critical care demand that overwhelmed hospital capacity in Ontario during Spring 2021.

Conclusions: Our Tool can help different levels of health authorities plan their response to the pandemic. The main differentiators between this Tool and other existing tools include its ease of use, ability to build scenarios, and that it provides immediate outcomes that are ready to share with executive decision makers. The Tool is used by provincial health ministries, public health departments, and hospitals to make operational decisions and communicate possible scenarios to the public. The Tool provides educational value for the healthcare community and can be adapted for existing and emerging diseases.

Keywords: COVID-19; PPE demand; epidemiology; health policy; health system capacity; hospital bed demand; infectious diseases; interactive tool; predictive modeling; public health; statistics and research methods.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: None to be declared.

Figures

Figure 1: Flowchart for the <i>COVID-19 health system capacity planning tool</i>
Figure 1: Flowchart for the COVID-19 health system capacity planning tool
Figure 2: Estimated R<sub>eff</sub>(t) and potential effect of control measures in Ontario, Canada
Figure 2: Estimated Reff(t) and potential effect of control measures in Ontario, Canada
Figure 3: Scenario-based projections in Ontario, Canada (A) Daily number of reported COVID-19 cases (B) Hospitalized cases (C) Patients in ICU (D) Patients in ICU with ventilation. The model was fitted and calibrated (solid black line) to the historical data (teal circles) from 1<sup>st</sup> February 2020 until 31<sup>st</sup> January 2021
Figure 3: Scenario-based projections in Ontario, Canada (A) Daily number of reported COVID-19 cases (B) Hospitalized cases (C) Patients in ICU (D) Patients in ICU with ventilation. The model was fitted and calibrated (solid black line) to the historical data (teal circles) from 1st February 2020 until 31st January 2021
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