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. 2022 Apr 20:13:870708.
doi: 10.3389/fendo.2022.870708. eCollection 2022.

Prediction of Fertilization Disorders in the In Vitro Fertilization/Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection: A Retrospective Study of 106,728 Treatment Cycles

Tian Tian  1   2   3   4 , Lixue Chen  1   2   3   4 , Rui Yang  1   2   3   4 , Xiaoyu Long  1   2   3   4 , Qin Li  1   2   3   4 , Yongxiu Hao  1   2   3   4 , Fei Kong  1   2   3   4 , Rong Li  1   2   3   4 , Yuanyuan Wang  1   2   3   4 , Jie Qiao  1   2   3   4
Affiliations

Prediction of Fertilization Disorders in the In Vitro Fertilization/Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection: A Retrospective Study of 106,728 Treatment Cycles

Tian Tian et al. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). .

Abstract

Purpose: This study aimed to develop a risk prediction of fertilization disorders during the in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI).

Methods: A retrospective study was performed with 106,728 fresh embryo IVF/ICSI cycles from 2009 to 2019. Basic characteristics of patients, clinical treatment data, and laboratory parameters were involved. The associations between the selected variables and risks for low fertilization rate (LFR) and total fertilization failure (TFF) were investigated. Ordinal logistic regression and the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) were used to construct and evaluate the prediction models.

Results: A total of 97,181 controls, 4,343 LFR and 5,204 TFF cases were involved in this study. The model based on clinical characteristics (the ages of the couples, women's BMI, types of infertility, ART failure history, the diminished ovarian reserve, sperm quality, insemination method, and the number of oocytes retrieved) had an AUC of 0.743 for TFF. The laboratory model showed that primary infertility, ART failure history, minimal-stimulation cycle/natural cycle, numbers of oocyte retrieved < 5, IVF, and Anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) level < 1.1ng/ml are predictors of TFF, with an AUC of 0.742.

Conclusion: We established a clinical and a laboratory prediction model for LFR/TFF. Both of the models showed relatively high AUCs.

Keywords: anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH); failed fertilization; in vitro fertilization; low fertilization; prediction model.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The flow chart of the participants’ selection.
Figure 2
Figure 2
The ROC analysis of clinical and laboratory models. (A) ROC curves for the clinical model. This model includes women’s age, husband’s age, women’s BMI, primary infertility, the history of IVF failure, the diminished ovarian function, the husband with severe OAZ and azoospermia, IVF method, and the number of oocyte-obtained. (B) ROC curves for the laboratory model. This model contains predictors such as primary infertility type, ART failure history, minimal-stimulation, natural cycles, number of retrieved oocytes, IVF, and AMH level. LFR, low fertilization rate; TFF, Total fertilization failure.
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