Optimizing acute stroke outcome prediction models: Comparison of generalized regression neural networks and logistic regressions

Abstract

Background: Generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and logistic regression (LR) are extensively used in the medical field; however, the better model for predicting stroke outcome has not been established. The primary goal of this study was to compare the accuracies of GRNN and LR models to identify the most optimal model for the prediction of acute stroke outcome, as well as explore useful biomarkers for predicting the prognosis of acute stroke patients.

Method: In a single-center study, 216 (80% for the training set and 20% for the test set) acute stroke patients admitted to the Shenzhen Second People's Hospital between December 2019 to June 2021 were retrospectively recruited. The functional outcomes of the patients were measured using Barthel Index (BI) on discharge. A training set was used to optimize the GRNN and LR models. The test set was utilized to validate and compare the performances of GRNN and LR in predicting acute stroke outcome based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), accuracy, sensitivity, and the Kappa value.

Result: The LR analysis showed that age, the National Institute Health Stroke Scale score, BI index, hemoglobin, and albumin were independently associated with stroke outcome. After validating in test set using these variables, we found that the GRNN model showed a better performance based on AUROC (0.931 vs 0.702), sensitivity (0.933 vs 0.700), specificity (0.889 vs 0.722), accuracy (0.896 vs 0.729), and the Kappa value (0.775 vs 0.416) than the LR model.

Conclusion: Overall, the GRNN model demonstrated superior performance to the LR model in predicting the prognosis of acute stroke patients. In addition to its advantage in not affected by implicit interactions and complex relationship in the data. Thus, we suggested that GRNN could be served as the optimal statistical model for acute stroke outcome prediction. Simultaneously, prospective validation based on more variables of the GRNN model for the prediction is required in future studies.

Fig 1. The structure of the GRNN.

Fig 2. Study flowchart.

Fig 3. ROC curve of the LR and GRNN models for the test set.