Late non-fasting plasma glucose predicts cardiovascular mortality independent of hemoglobin A1c

Abstract

It is unknown whether non-fasting plasma glucose (PG) is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. This study aimed to investigate this association in US adults. This study included adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys from 1988 to 2014. Mortality outcomes were ascertained by linkage to the National Death Index records. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of PG for CVD mortality. Among 34,907 participants, 1956, 5564, and 27,387 had PG from participants in early non-fasting, late non-fasting, and fasting states, respectively (defined as a period since last calorie intake of 0-2.9, 3.0-7.9, or ≥ 8.0 h, respectively). This cohort was followed up for 455,177 person-years (mean follow-up, 13.0 years), with 2,387 CVD deaths being recorded. After adjustment for all confounders including hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), only late non-fasting PG (continuous, natural log-transformed) was positively associated with CVD mortality risks (hazard ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval 1.12-2.67). Higher late non-fasting PG (dichotomous, at a cut-off of 105, 110, or 115 mg/dL) was associated with higher CVD mortality risks. In addition, at the cut-off of 115 mg/dL, higher late non-fasting PG was associated with higher CVD mortality risks in those with either a normal (< 5.7%) or prediabetic HbA1c level (from 5.7 to 6.4%). In conclusion, late non-fasting PG predicts CVD mortality independent of HbA1c. Late non-fasting PG with a cut-off of 115 mg/dL may be used to identify those at high CVD risk.

Figure 1

Mean plasma glucose concentrations at each hour since the last caloric intake. The line graph represents plasma glucose concentrations, and the histogram represents sample size at each time point. The time since the last caloric intake was divided into three periods: 0–2.9 h (early non-fasting), 3.0–7.9 h (late non-fasting), and ≥ 8.0 h (fasting). NF, non-fasting.