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. 2022 May 13;11(1):52.
doi: 10.1186/s40249-022-00980-2.

Potential risk of colonization of Bulinus globosus in the mainland of China under climate change

Xinyao Wang  1   2 , Saleh Juma  3 , Wei Li  1   2 , Mchanga Suleman  3 , Mtumweni Ali Muhsin  3   4 , Jian He  1   2 , Mingzhen He  5 , Dacheng Xu  6 , Jianfeng Zhang  1   2 , Robert Bergquist  7 , Kun Yang  8   9   10   11
Affiliations

Potential risk of colonization of Bulinus globosus in the mainland of China under climate change

Xinyao Wang et al. Infect Dis Poverty. .

Abstract

Background: Bulinus globosus, the main intermediate snail host of Schistosoma haematobium. The increased contacts between Africa and China could even lead to large-scale dissemination of B. globosus in China. Temperature is the key factor affecting fresh-water snail transmission. This study predicted potential risk of colonization of B. globosus in the mainland of China under climate change.

Methods: We investigated minimum and maximum temperatures for B. globosus eggs, juveniles and adult snails kept under laboratory conditions to find the most suitable range by pinpointing the median effective temperatures (ET50). We also assessed the influence of temperature on spawning and estimated the accumulated temperature (AT). The average air temperatures between 1955 and 2019 in January and July, the coldest and hottest months in China, respectively, were collected from national meteorological monitoring stations and investigated in a geographic information system (GIS) using empirical Bayesian Kriging to evaluate the theoretical possibility for distribution of B. globosus in southern China based on temperature.

Results: The effective minimum temperature (ET50min) for eggs, juveniles, adult snails and spawning were 8.5, 7.0, 7.0, 14.9 °C, respectively, with the corresponding maximum values (ET50max) of 36.6, 40.5, 40.2 and 38.1 °C. The AT was calculated at 712.1 ± 64.9 °C·d. In 1955, the potential B. globosus distribution would have had a northern boundary stretching from the coastal areas of Guangdong Province and Guangxi Autonomous Region to southern Yunnan Province. Since then, this line has gradually moved northward.

Conclusions: Annual regeneration of B. globosus can be supported by the current climate conditions in the mainland of China, and a gradual expansion trend from south to north is shown in the study from 2015 to 2019. Thus, there is a potential risk of colonization of B. globosus in the mainland of China under climate change.

Keywords: Bulinus globosus; China; Climate change; Colonization; Geographic information systems; Potential distribution; Schistosoma haematobium.

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Conflict of interest statement

We declare that we have no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
The flow chart of this study process
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Testing curves of the egg mortality rates at different temperatures
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Testing curves of the juvenile mortality rates at different temperatures
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Testing curves of the adult mortality rates at different temperatures
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Testing curves of the spawning at different temperatures
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
The northward displacement in southern China of the boundary defining areas that could theoretically support colonization of B. globosus. Map approval No. GS(2022)2432
Fig. 7
Fig. 7
Areas that could theoretically support annual regeneration of B. globosus in the mainland of China on 2019. Map approval No. GS(2022)2432
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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