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. 2022 May 16;22(1):987.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-13281-y.

The spatiotemporal dynamics of lung cancer: 30-year trends of epidemiology across 204 countries and territories

Xiang Chen  1   2 , Shaoyan Mo  3 , Bin Yi  4   5   6   7
Affiliations

The spatiotemporal dynamics of lung cancer: 30-year trends of epidemiology across 204 countries and territories

Xiang Chen et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Background: It has been established that lung cancer is the leading cause of all cancer deaths. This study sought to analyze the epidemiological trends of lung cancer over the past 30 years worldwide.

Methods: Estimates, including the global, regional, national prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) of lung cancer from 1990 to 2019, were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to assess the spatiotemporal dynamics in cases and age-standardized rates (ASR). The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to evaluate the variation in ASR. Besides, estimates of age-sex specific prevalence, decomposition analysis for incident cases, and correlation analysis of the EAPC were conducted in our study.

Results: Globally, the ASR of lung cancer prevalence, incidence and YLDs in 2019 were 38.84/100,000 persons, 27.66/100,000 persons, and 6.62/100,000 persons, respectively. Over the past 30 years, the ASR of incidence (EAPC = -0.09) decreased, although that of prevalence (EAPC = 0.51) and YLDs (EAPC = 0.03) increased. The global prevalence counts was greater in males than females at all age groups and increased with age, peaking in the 65-69 age group for both sexes. The increase in incidence was mainly attributed to population aging. For YLDs, EAPC was negatively correlated with the human development index (p = 0.0008) and ASR (p < 0.0001) in 1990 across nation-level units.

Conclusions: Lung cancer remains a major public health issue globally, warranting the implementation of scientific and effective measures in different countries and territories to control it.

Keywords: Incidence; Lung cancer; Prevalence; Spatiotemporal dynamics; Years lived with disability.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no potential conflicts of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
The epidemiology of lung cancer globally, and at five SDI regions from 1990 to 2019. (A) prevalent cases; (B) ASPR; (C) incident cases; (D) ASIR; (E) YLDs; (F) ASYR. SDI, socio-demographic index; ASIR, age-standardized incidence rate; ASPR, age-standardized prevalence rate; YLDs, years lived with disability; ASYR, age-standardized YLDs rate
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
The epidemiology of lung cancer in 21 GBD regions from 1990 to 2019. (A) prevalent cases; (B) ASPR; (C) incident cases; (D) ASIR; (E) YLDs; (F) ASYR. Those data from certain regions can be viewed in the top-right of the panel. SDI, socio-demographic index; ASIR, age-standardized incidence rate; ASPR, age-standardized prevalence rate; YLDs, years lived with disability; ASYR, age-standardized YLDs rate
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
The trends of lung cancer for both sexes in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. (A) The EAPC in ASPR; (B) The EAPC in ASIR; (C) The EAPC in ASYR. EAPC, estimated annual percentage change; ASPR, age-standardized prevalence rate; ASIR, age-standardized incidence rate; ASYR, age-standardized YLDs rate
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
The absolute number of prevalent cases and prevalence rates/100,000 persons of lung cancer by age and sex in 2019 at (A) the globe; (B) low SDI regions; (C) low-middle SDI regions; (D) middle SDI regions; (E) high-middle SDI regions; and (F) high SDI regions. SDI: socio-demographic index
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
The proportions of lung cancer incident cases varied from 1990 to 2019 attributed to incident rate change, population growth, and population ageing at (A) the globe; (B) low SDI regions; (C) low-middle SDI regions; (D) middle SDI regions; (E) high-middle SDI regions; and (F) high SDI regions. SDI: socio-demographic index
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
The correlation of lung cancer between EAPC of ASYR and A HDI in 1990, and B ASYR in 1990. The circles represent countries that were available on HDI data and GHDx query tool. The size of circle is increased with the absolute number of lung cancer. The r indices and p values presented in (A) and (B) were derived from Pearson correlation analysis. EAPC, estimated annual percentage change; ASYR, age-standardized YLDs rate; HDI, human development index; GHDx, global health data exchange
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