Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2022 May 17;17(5):e0267941.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0267941. eCollection 2022.

Associations between prisons and recidivism: A nationwide longitudinal study

Rongqin Yu  1 , Niklas Långström  2   3 , Mats Forsman  2 , Arvid Sjölander  2 , Seena Fazel  1 , Yasmina Molero  2   4
Affiliations

Associations between prisons and recidivism: A nationwide longitudinal study

Rongqin Yu et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Objectives: To examine differences in recidivism rates between different prisons using two designs-between-individual and within-individual-to account for confounding factors.

Methods: We examined recidivism rates among 37,891 individuals released from 44 Swedish prisons in three security levels, and who were followed from 2006 to 2013. We used longitudinal data from nationwide registers, including all convictions from district courts. First, we applied a between-individual design (Cox proportional hazards regression), comparing reconviction rates between individuals released from prisons within the same security level, while adjusting for a range of individual-level covariates. Second, we applied a within-individual design (stratified Cox proportional hazards regression), comparing rates of reconviction within the same individuals, i.e., we compared rates after release from one prison to the rates in the same individual after release from another prison, thus adjusting for all time-invariant confounders within each individual (e.g. genetics and early environment). We also adjusted for a range of time-varying individual-level covariates.

Results: Results showed differences in the hazard of recidivism between different prisons in between-individual analyses, with hazards ranging from 1.22 (1.05-1.43) to 4.99 (2.44-10.21). Results from within-individual analyses, which further adjusted for all time-invariant confounders, showed minimal differences between prisons, with hazards ranging from 0.95 (0.87-1.05) to 1.05 (0.95-1.16). Only small differences were found when violent and non-violent crimes were analyzed separately.

Conclusions: The study highlights the importance of research designs that more fully adjust for individual-level confounding factors to avoid over-interpretation of the variability in comparisons across prisons.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1
A. Between-individual analyses of recidivism risk among prisoners released from high security prisons (level 1). B. Within-individual analyses of recidivism risk among prisoners released from high security prisons (level 1).
Fig 2
Fig 2
A. Between-individual analyses of recidivism risk among prisoners released from medium security prisons (level 2). B. Within-individual analyses of recidivism risk among prisoners released from medium security prisons (level 2).
Fig 3
Fig 3
A. Between-individual analyses of recidivism risk among prisoners released from low security prisons (level 3). B. Within-individual analyses of recidivism risk among prisoners released from low security prisons (level 3).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Similar articles

See all similar articles

Cited by

References

    1. UNODC. HIV prevention, treatment and care in prisons and other closed settings: a comprehensive package of interventions. Vienna: United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime. 2013.
    1. Fazel S, Wolf A. A systematic review of criminal recidivism rates worldwide: current difficulties and recommendations for best practice. PloS one. 2015;10:e0130390. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0130390 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Yukhnenko D, Sridhar S, Fazel S. A systematic review of criminal recidivism rates worldwide: 3-year update. Wellcome Trust Open Research. 2019;4:28. doi: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.14970.3 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Fazel S, Wolf A, Chang Z, Larsson H, Goodwin GM, Lichtenstein P. Depression and violence: a Swedish population study. Lancet Psychiat. 2015;2(3):224–32. doi: 10.1016/S2215-0366(14)00128-X - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Fazel S, Yu R. Psychotic disorders and repeat offending: systematic review and meta-analysis. Schizophrenia Bull. 2011;37(4):800–10. doi: 10.1093/schbul/sbp135 - DOI - PMC - PubMed

Publication types