Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
Comment
. 2022 May 24;119(21):e2117308119.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2117308119. Epub 2022 May 19.

Estimates of economic and environmental damages from tipping points cannot be reconciled with the scientific literature

Steve Keen  1 , Timothy M Lenton  2 , Timothy J Garrett  3 , James W B Rae  4 , Brian P Hanley  5 , Matheus Grasselli  6
Affiliations
Comment

Estimates of economic and environmental damages from tipping points cannot be reconciled with the scientific literature

Steve Keen et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .
No abstract available

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
Manne and Dietz’s actual quadratic nonmarket damage function (0.0032·ΔT2) versus a temporally consistent quadratic (0.08·ΔT2), and compared to a logistic alternative (100/[1+e12/5·(2−ΔT)]). The point (0.5 °C, 2%) is the correct mid-1990’s warming when environmental expenditure was 2%. Point (2.5 °C, 2%) is an arbitrary value without apparent basis. (ref. , SI Appendix).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

Comment on

References

    1. Dietz S., Rising J., Stoerk T., Wagner G., Economic impacts of tipping points in the climate system. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 118, 10.1073/pnas.2103081118 (2021). - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Solow R, “Building a science of economics for the real world” (Hearing 111-106, House of Representatives, 2010).
    1. Burke K. D., et al. ., Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 115, 13288–13293 (2018). - PMC - PubMed
    1. Rae J. W., et al. ., Atmospheric CO2 over the past 66 million years from marine archives. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 49, 609–641 (2021).
    1. Lenton T. M., et al. ., Climate tipping points—Too risky to bet against. Nature 575, 592–595 (2019). - PubMed

LinkOut - more resources