Clinical severity of COVID-19 in patients admitted to hospital during the omicron wave in South Africa: a retrospective observational study

Abstract

Background: Up to the end of January, 2022, South Africa has had four recognisable COVID-19 pandemic waves, each predominantly dominated by one variant of concern: the ancestral strain with an Asp614Gly mutation during the first wave, the beta variant (B.1.351) during the second wave, the delta variant (B.1.617.2) during the third wave, and lastly, the omicron variant (B.1.1.529) during the fourth wave. We aimed to assess the clinical disease severity of patients admitted to hospital with SARS-CoV-2 infection during the omicron wave and compare the findings with those of the preceding three pandemic waves in South Africa.

Methods: We defined the start and end of each pandemic wave as the crossing of the threshold of weekly incidence of 30 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases per 100 000 population. Hospital admission data were collected through an active national COVID-19-specific surveillance programme. We compared disease severity across waves by post-imputation random effect multivariable logistic regression models. Severe disease was defined as one or more of the following: acute respiratory distress, receipt of supplemental oxygen or mechanical ventilation, admission to intensive care, or death.

Findings: We analysed 335 219 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 hospital admissions with a known outcome, constituting 10·4% of 3 216 179 cases recorded during the four waves. During the omicron wave, 52 038 (8·3%) of 629 617 cases were admitted to hospital, compared with 71 411 (12·9%) of 553 530 in the Asp614Gly wave, 91 843 (12·6%) of 726 772 in the beta wave, and 131 083 (10·0%) of 1 306 260 in the delta wave (p<0·0001). During the omicron wave, 15 421 (33·6%) of 45 927 patients admitted to hospital had severe disease, compared with 36 837 (52·3%) of 70 424 in the Asp614Gly wave, 57 247 (63·4%) of 90 310 in the beta wave, and 81 040 (63·0%) of 128 558 in the delta wave (p<0·0001). The in-hospital case-fatality ratio during the omicron wave was 10·7%, compared with 21·5% during the Asp614Gly wave, 28·8% during the beta wave, and 26·4% during the delta wave (p<0·0001). Compared with those admitted to hospital during the omicron wave, patients admitted during the other three waves had more severe clinical presentations (adjusted odds ratio 2·07 [95% CI 2·01-2·13] in the Asp614Gly wave, 3·59 [3·49-3·70] in the beta wave, and 3·47 [3·38-3·57] in the delta wave).

Interpretation: The trend of increasing cases and admissions across South Africa's first three waves shifted in the omicron wave, with a higher and quicker peak but fewer patients admitted to hospital, less clinically severe illness, and a lower case-fatality ratio compared with the preceding three waves. Omicron marked a change in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic curve, clinical profile, and deaths in South Africa. Extrapolations to other populations should factor in differing vaccination and previous infection levels.

Funding: National Institute for Communicable Diseases.

Figure 1

7-day moving average of SARS-CoV-2 cases, COVID-19 hospital admissions, and in-hospital deaths in South Africa, March 5, 2020, to Jan 22, 2022

Figure 2

Proportion of cases admitted, admissions who received supplementary oxygen, patients with severe disease, and in-hospital deaths, for individuals of all ages, those younger than 5 years, those aged 6–59 years, and those aged 60 years or older Proportions presented for each COVID-19 wave in South Africa: Asp614Gly (June 7, to Aug 22, 2020), beta (B.1.351; Nov 15, 2020, to Feb 6, 2021), delta (B.1.617.2; May 9, to Sept 18, 2021), and omicron (B.1.1.529; Nov 21, 2021, to Jan 22, 2022). *p<0·001; †p>0·05 comparing omicron wave to the Asp614Gly, beta, and delta waves.