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. 2022 Aug:28:101843.
doi: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2022.101843. Epub 2022 May 24.

Impact of layered non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Yucatan, Mexico

G Ayora-Talavera  1 , P Granja-Perez  2 , M Sauri-Vivas  3 , C I Hernández-Fuentes  3 , I P Hennessee  4 , I López-Martínez  5 , G Barrera-Badillo  5 , A Che-Mendoza  6 , P Manrique-Saide  6 , J A Clennon  7 , H Gómez-Dantés  8 , G Vazquez-Prokopec  4
Affiliations

Impact of layered non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Yucatan, Mexico

G Ayora-Talavera et al. Prev Med Rep. 2022 Aug.

Abstract

Background: The pandemic propagation of SARS-CoV-2 led to the adoption of a myriad of non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs, e.g., social distancing, mobility restrictions, gathering restrictions) in the Americas. Using national epidemiological data, here we report the impact of the layered adoption of multiple NPIs aimed at curving SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Yucatan State, Mexico.

Methods: Data from suspected and laboratory confirmed COVID-19 cases during 2020 were analyzed by age groups and sex, clinical signs, and symptoms as well as outcome. The impact of NPIs was quantified using time-varying reproduction numbers (R t) estimated as a time-series and by sectors of the city.

Findings: A total of 69,602 suspected cases were reported, 39.3% were laboratory-confirmed. Men were hospitalized (60.2%), more severely ill (3% vs 1.9%) and more likely to die (62%) than women. Early in the outbreak, all sectors in Merida had R t estimates above unity. Once all NPÍs were in place, R t values were dramatically reduced below one, and in the last interval transmission estimates of R t remained below one in all sectors.

Interpretation: In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccination program, the combination and wide adherence of NPÍs led to a low and stable trend in SARS-CoV-2 transmission that did not overwhelm the health sector. Our study reflects that a controlled and planned ease of restrictions to balance health, social and economic recovery resulted in a single wave of transmission that prolonged at low and stable levels.

Funding: GVP received funding from Emory University via the MP3 Initiative.

Keywords: COVID-19; Mexico; Non-Pharmacological Interventions; Yucatan.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
COVID-19 confirmed cases by (A) sex and (B) age specific adjusted incidence rate in Merida, Yucatan, Mexico, during 2020 (expressed as cases/100,000 population).
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Rt, Epidemic Curve, and Timeline of COVID-19 Interventions in Mérida, Mexico. March – December 2020.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Estimates of Rt by Ministry of Health (MOH) sector, split by temporal intervals matching the introduction of different interventions in the city of Mérida, Mexico. March – December 2020.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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