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. 2022 Jun:39:100577.
doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100577. Epub 2022 May 18.

A multilayer network model of Covid-19: Implications in public health policy in Costa Rica

Fabio Sanchez  1 , Juan G Calvo  2 , Gustavo Mery  3 , Yury E García  4 , Paola Vásquez  5 , Luis A Barboza  2 , María Dolores Pérez  3 , Tania Rivas  6
Affiliations

A multilayer network model of Covid-19: Implications in public health policy in Costa Rica

Fabio Sanchez et al. Epidemics. 2022 Jun.

Abstract

Successful partnerships between researchers, experts, and public health authorities have been critical to navigate the challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic worldwide. In this collaboration, mathematical models have played a decisive role in informing public policy, with findings effectively translated into public health measures that have shaped the pandemic in Costa Rica. As a result of interdisciplinary and cross-institutional collaboration, we constructed a multilayer network model that incorporates a diverse contact structure for each individual. In July 2020, we used this model to test the effect of lifting restrictions on population mobility after a so-called "epidemiological fence" imposed to contain the country's first big wave of cases. Later, in August 2020, we used it to predict the effects of an open and close strategy (the Hammer and Dance). Scenarios constructed in July 2020 showed that lifting restrictions on population mobility after less than three weeks of epidemiological fence would produce a sharp increase in cases. Results from scenarios in August 2020 indicated that the Hammer and Dance strategy would only work with 50% of the population adhering to mobility restrictions. The development, evolution, and applications of a multilayer network model of Covid-19 in Costa Rica has guided decision-makers to anticipate implementing sanitary measures and contributed to gain valuable time to increase hospital capacity.

Keywords: Computational model; Covid-19; Network model; Non-pharmaceutical interventions; Public health.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Figures

None
Graphical abstract
Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Representation of contact layers in the network. Three different layers are included in the network: household, social, and sporadic contacts.
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Transmission model. Individual’s epidemiological states for SARS-CoV-2.
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Scenario in July: Cumulative confirmed Covid-19 cases (Left), hospitalizations (Center), and ICU (Right) admissions.
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Scenario in August: Cumulative confirmed Covid-19 cases (Left), hospitalizations (Center), and ICU (Right) admissions. Percentages in the legend correspond to changes in the human mobility (HM) parameter. The first values are for cantons with a yellow alert, and the second values are for cantons with an orange alert.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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