Long-term outcomes and prognostic factors in kidney transplant recipients in Jakarta, Indonesia: a cohort study

Abstract

Objectives: To determine the long-term survival rates and prognostic factors in kidney transplant (KT) recipients in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Design: Retrospective cohort study.

Setting: A KT centre in Jakarta.

Participants: We enrolled 754 consecutive adult recipients who underwent KT between 2010 and 2020.

Main outcome measures: Rates of 10-year patient, all-cause and death-censored graft survival and their prognostic factors in KT recipients.

Results: The 10-year patient survival, all-cause survival and death-censored graft survival rates of KT recipients were 74%, 68% and 81%, respectively. The prognostic factors for poor patient survival were a pretransplant dialysis duration>24 months (HR 1.64, 95% CI, 1.08 to 2.49; p=0.02), cardiovascular disease (HR 1.59, 95% CI, 1.11 to 2.31; p=0.01), delayed graft function (DGF) (HR 4.94, 95% CI, 2.76 to 8.82; p<0.001), post-transplant infection (HR 2.63, 95% CI, 1.56 to 4.43; p<0.001) and acute rejection (HR 2.49, 95% CI, 1.20 to 5.15; p=0.01). All-cause graft survival was prognosticated by a pretransplant dialysis duration>24 months (HR 1.74, 95% CI, 1.15 to 2.47; p=0.007), cardiovascular disease (HR 1.65, 95% CI, 1.18 to 2.33; p=0.004), DGF (HR 5.39, 95% CI, 3.13 to 9.28; p<0.001), post-transplant infection (HR 2.46, 95% CI, 1.05 to 4.02; p<0.001) and acute rejection (HR 4.18, 95% CI, 2.23 to 7.84; p<0.001). Factors associated with poor death-censored graft survival were a pretransplant dialysis duration >24 months (HR 2.19, 95% CI, 1.32 to 3.63; p=0.002), cardiovascular disease (HR 1.65, 95% CI, 1.02 to 2.68; p=0.04) and acute rejection (HR 5.52, 95% CI, 2.80 to 10.83; p<0.001).

Conclusions: The survival rates of KT recipients are prognosticated by pretransplant dialysis duration, cardiovascular disease, DGF, post-transplant infection and acute rejection. Stricter eligibility criteria for recipients, more sensitive cross-match testing methods and better infection management strategies may be beneficial for improving the survival rates.

Keywords: adult nephrology; end stage renal failure; renal transplantation.

Figure 1

Estimated 10-year patient, all-cause and death-censored graft survival probabilities.

Figure 2

Population at risk at each landmark timepoint for death (A), all-cause graft failure (B), death-censored graft failure (C).