Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
Review
. 2022 May 23;13(1):2066456.
doi: 10.1080/20008198.2022.2066456. eCollection 2022.

Change in prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder in the two years following trauma: a meta-analytic study

P R Diamond  1 , J N Airdrie  1 , R Hiller  1 , A Fraser  2 , L V Hiscox  1 , C Hamilton-Giachritsis  1 , S L Halligan  1   3
Affiliations
Review

Change in prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder in the two years following trauma: a meta-analytic study

P R Diamond et al. Eur J Psychotraumatol. .

Abstract
in English, Spanish, Chinese

Background: Understanding the course of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and the factors that impact this is essential to inform decisions about when and for whom screening and intervention are likely to be beneficial.

Objective: To provide meta-analytic evidence of the course of recovery from PTSD in the first year following trauma, and the factors that influence that recovery.

Method: We conducted a meta-analysis of observational studies of adult PTSD prevalence which included at least two assessments within the first 12 months following trauma exposure, examining prevalence statistics through to 2 years post-trauma. We examined trauma intentionality (intentional or non-intentional), PTSD assessment method (clinician or self-report), sample sex distribution, and age as moderators of PTSD prevalence over time.

Results: We identified 78 eligible studies including 16,484 participants. Pooled prevalence statistics indicated that over a quarter of individuals presented with PTSD at 1 month post-trauma, with this proportion reducing by a third between 1 and 3 months. Beyond 3 months, any prevalence changes were detected over longer intervals and were small in magnitude. Intentional trauma, younger age, and female sex were associated with higher PTSD prevalence at 1 month. In addition, higher proportions of females, intentional trauma exposure, and higher baseline PTSD prevalence were each associated with larger reductions in prevalence over time.

Conclusions: Recovery from PTSD following acute trauma exposure primarily occurs in the first 3 months post-trauma. Screening measures and intervention approaches offered at 3 months may better target persistent symptoms than those conducted prior to this point.

Highlights: PTSD rates in the immediate aftermath of trauma exposure decline from 27% at 1 month to 18% at 3 months post-trauma, showing significant spontaneous recovery.Problems appear to stabilize after 3 months.Screening/intervention for PTSD at 3 months post-trauma is indicated.

Antecedentes: La comprensión del curso del trastorno de Estrés Postraumático (TEPT) y los factores que lo impactan son esenciales para la toma de decisiones informadas acerca de cuándo y para quién es probable que la detección e intervención sean beneficiosas.

Objetivo: Proporcionar evidencia meta-analítica del curso de la recuperación del TEPT en el primer año después de un trauma y los factores que influyen en esa recuperación.

Método: Condujimos un metaanálisis de estudios observacionales de la prevalencia de TEPT en adultos que incluyeron al menos dos evaluaciones dentro de los primeros doce meses después de la exposición a un trauma, examinando las estadísticas de prevalencia hasta los 2 años posteriores al trauma. Examinamos la intencionalidad del trauma (intencional o no), métodos de evaluación del TEPT (clínicos o auto-reporte), distribución por sexo de la muestra y edad como moderadores de prevalencia de TEPT a lo largo del tiempo.

Resultados: Identificamos 18 estudios elegibles con 16.484 participantes. Las estadísticas de prevalencia agrupadas indicaron que más de una cuarta parte de los individuos presentaron TEPT un mes después de un trauma, y esta proporción se redujo a un tercio entre 1 y 3 meses. Más allá de los 3 meses, los cambios de prevalencia se detectaron en intervalos más largos y fueron de magnitud pequeña. El trauma intencional, ser más joven y sexo femenino se asociaron con una mayor prevalencia de TEPT al mes. Además, las proporciones más altas de mujeres, la exposición a trauma intencional y la prevalencia inicial más alta de TEPT se asociaron con mayores reducciones en la prevalencia en el tiempo.

Conclusiones: La recuperación del TEPT después de la exposición a un trauma agudo ocurre principalmente en los primeros 3 meses posteriores al trauma. Las medidas de detección y enfoques terapéuticos ofrecidos a los tres meses pueden abordar mejor los síntomas persistentes que los realizados antes de este momento.

背景: 了解创伤后应激障碍 (PTSD) 病程以及影响对于决定何时以及对谁进行筛查和干预的重要因素可能是有益的。.

目的: 提供关于创伤后第一年 PTSD 恢复过程以及影响恢复因素的元分析证据。.

方法: 我们对成人 PTSD 患病率的观察性研究进行了元分析，包括在创伤暴露后的前 12 个月内至少进行两次评估考查创伤后 2 年患病率的统计数据。我们考查了创伤意向性（故意或非故意）、PTSD 评估方法（临床医生或自我报告）、样本性别分布和年龄作为 PTSD 患病率随时间变化的调节因素。.

结果: 我们确定了 78 项符合条件的研究，包括 16,484 名参与者。汇总患病率统计数据表明，超过四分之一的个体在创伤后 1 个月出现 PTSD，这一比例在 1 到 3 个月之间减少了三分之一。检测到超过 3 个月更长的时间间隔内的一些流行率变化且幅度很小。故意创伤、年龄较小和女性与 1 个月时较高的 PTSD 患病率有关。此外，较高比例的女性、故意创伤暴露和较高的基线 PTSD 患病率均与随时间推移患病率的大幅下降相关。.

结论: 急性创伤暴露后 PTSD 的恢复主要发生在创伤后的前 3 个月。在 3 个月时提供的筛查措施和干预方法可能比在此前进行的那些更能针对持续性症状。.

Keywords: PTSD; Post-traumatic stress disorder; adults; longitudinal; meta-analysis; prevalence.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
PRISMA flow diagram outlining the process of screening studies for inclusion in the review. PTSD, post-traumatic stress disorder.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. References listed are limited to those referred to in the text of the article. For references included in the meta-analysis, please see Appendix C in the supplementary material.
    1. Aldwin, C. M., Sutton, K. J., Chiara, G., & Spiro, A., 3rd (1996). Age differences in stress, coping, and appraisal: Findings from the normative aging study. The Journals of Gerontology. Series B , Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences, 51(4), 179–188. - PubMed
    1. American Psychiatric Association. (2013). Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (5th ed.). Arlington, VA: American Psychiatric Publishing.
    1. Bangasser, D. A., Eck, S. R., & Ordoñes Sanchez, E. (2019). Sex differences in stress reactivity in arousal and attention systems. Neuropsychopharmacology, 44(1), 129–13we9. doi:10.1038/s41386-018-0137-2 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Barendregt, J. J., Doi, S. A., Lee, Y. Y., Norman, R. E., & Vos, T. (2013). Meta-analysis of prevalence. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 67(11), 974–978. doi:10.1136/jech-2013-203104 - DOI - PubMed