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. 2022 May 11:12:873367.
doi: 10.3389/fonc.2022.873367. eCollection 2022.

External Application of a Nomogram to Predict Survival and Benefit of Peripheral Blood Inflammatory Indexes in Limited-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer

Lijuan Wei  1 , Qing Hou  1 , Jianting Liu  1 , Ningning Yao  1 , Yu Liang  1 , Xin Cao  1 , Bochen Sun  1 , Hongwei Li  1 , Shuming Xu  2 , Jianzhong Cao  1
Affiliations

External Application of a Nomogram to Predict Survival and Benefit of Peripheral Blood Inflammatory Indexes in Limited-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer

Lijuan Wei et al. Front Oncol. .

Abstract

Background: Qi et al. recently proposed a nomogram to reveal the prognostic value of peripheral blood inflammatory indexes (named Risk) and predict overall survival (OS) in limited-stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC). However, it hasn't undergone external application so far. This study aimed to verify the role of Risk as a prognostic variable of OS and apply the nomogram externally.

Methods: We used a retrospective analysis of clinical data of 254 patients diagnosed as LS-SCLC in Shanxi Cancer Hospital from January 2015 to December 2018 to apply Qi's nomogram externally. We also performed subgroup analysis to explore the predictive value of Risk. The model was evaluated in terms of discrimination (the area under the ROC curve (AUC ROC) and calibration (calibration plots).

Results: The prognosis of patients with low-Risk was significantly better than those with high-Risk in our cohort (p<0.01). The AUC of 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS was 0.644, 0.666, and 0.635, respectively. The calibration curve showed a nearly ideal calibration-slope of 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS (1.00 (0.41-1.59), 1.00 (0.54-1.46) and 1.00 (0.43-1.57), respectively).

Conclusion: The external application of nomogram added Risk for predicting OS in LS-SCLC patients showed a moderate-to-good performance using a cohort with different case-mix characteristics. The external application confirmed the predictive value of Risk and the usefulness of the nomogram for the prediction of OS.

Keywords: external application; immune and inflammatory; overall survival; prognoses prediction; small cell lung cancer.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Construction of the Risk by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model in the application cohort.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Forest plot depicting the hazard ratios (HRs) of low-Risk and high-Risk in the subgroup analysis of overall survival (OS). ECOG, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance score; CT cycles, chemotherapy cycles; PCI, prophylactic cranial irradiation.
Figure 3
Figure 3
The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of the nomogram to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall survival (OS) for small cell lung cancer (SCLC) patients.
Figure 4
Figure 4
The calibration curve of the nomogram for predicting SCLC patients’ 1-, 2-, and 3- year survival probability.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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