Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
Comment
. 2022 Jun;7(6):e494.
doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(22)00085-8.

Accuracy for key parameters in modelling study

Affiliations
Comment

Accuracy for key parameters in modelling study

Bingyi Yang et al. Lancet Public Health. 2022 Jun.
No abstract available

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

BJC reports honoraria from AstraZeneca, Fosun Pharma, GlaxoSmithKline, Moderna, Pfizer, Roche, and Sanofia Pasteur, and receives support from the AIR@InnoHK programme of the Innovation and Technology Commission of the Hong Kong SAR Government. All other authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Figure
Figure
Effect of parameterisation of viral shedding duration (A) on the simulated viral load kinetics (B) and duration of infectiousness (C) Infectiousness period was defined as the time when Ct is less than 30, as assumed by Quilty and colleagues. 1000 simulated individuals with COVID-19 symptoms. (A) Parameterisation of the course of disease. (B) Data are median (IQR); the dashed line represents the threshold of infectiousness (ie, Ct <30). (C) Lines represent results from 100 simulations for each scenario (ie, shedding duration since symptom onset or infection); each simulation consists of 1000 simulatated symptomatic individuals. Ct=cycle threshold.

Comment on

References

    1. Quilty BJ, Clifford S, Hellewell J, et al. Quarantine and testing strategies in contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study. Lancet Public Health. 2021;6:e175–e183. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Cevik M, Tate M, Lloyd O, Maraolo AE, Schafers J, Ho A. SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, and MERS-CoV viral load dynamics, duration of viral shedding, and infectiousness: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Microbe. 2021;2:e13–e22. - PMC - PubMed
    1. McAloon C, Collins Á, Hunt K, et al. Incubation period of COVID-19: a rapid systematic review and meta-analysis of observational research. BMJ Open. 2020;10 - PMC - PubMed
    1. Kissler SM, Fauver JR, Mack C, et al. Viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants in vaccinated and unvaccinated persons. N Eng J Med. 2021;385:2489–2491. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Hay JA, Kissler SM, Fauver JR, et al. Viral dynamics and duration of PCR positivity of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. medRxiv. 2022 doi: 10.1101/2022.01.13.22269257. published online Jan 14. (preprint). - DOI