Migraine with aura associates with a higher artificial intelligence: ECG atrial fibrillation prediction model output compared to migraine without aura in both women and men

Abstract

Objective: To compare the artificial intelligence-enabled electrocardiogram (AI-ECG) atrial fibrillation (AF) prediction model output in patients with migraine with aura (MwA) and migraine without aura (MwoA).

Background: MwA is associated with an approximately twofold risk of ischemic stroke. Longitudinal cohort studies showed that patients with MwA have a higher incidence of developing AF compared to those with MwoA. The Mayo Clinic Cardiology team developed an AI-ECG algorithm that calculates the probability of concurrent paroxysmal or impending AF in ECGs with normal sinus rhythm (NSR).

Methods: Adult patients with an MwA or MwoA diagnosis and at least one NSR ECG within the past 20 years at Mayo Clinic were identified. Patients with an ECG-confirmed diagnosis of AF were excluded. For each patient, the ECG with the highest AF prediction model output was used as the index ECG. Comparisons between MwA and MwoA were conducted in the overall group (including men and women of all ages), women only, and men only in each age range (18 to <35, 35 to <55, 55 to <75, ≥75 years), and adjusted for age, sex, and six common vascular comorbidities that increase risk for AF.

Results: The final analysis of our cross-sectional study included 40,002 patients (17,840 with MwA, 22,162 with MwoA). The mean (SD) age at the index ECG was 48.2 (16.0) years for MwA and 45.9 (15.0) years for MwoA (p < 0.001). The AF prediction model output was significantly higher in the MwA group compared to MwoA (mean [SD] 7.3% [15.0%] vs. 5.6% [12.4%], mean difference [95% CI] 1.7% [1.5%, 2.0%], p < 0.001). After adjusting for vascular comorbidities, the difference between MwA and MwoA remained significant in the overall group (least square means of difference [95% CI] 0.7% [0.4%, 0.9%], p < 0.001), 18 to <35 (0.4% [0.1%, 0.7%], p = 0.022), and 35 to <55 (0.5% [0.2%, 0.8%], p < 0.001), women of all ages (0.6% [0.3%, 0.8%], p < 0.001), men of all ages (1.0% [0.4%, 1.6%], p = 0.002), women 35 to <55 (0.6% [0.3%, 0.9%], p < 0.001), and men 18 to <35 (1.2% [0.3%, 2.1%], p = 0.008).

Conclusions: Utilizing a novel AI-ECG algorithm on a large group of patients, we demonstrated that patients with MwA have a significantly higher AF prediction model output, implying a higher probability of concurrent paroxysmal or impending AF, compared to MwoA in both women and men. Our results suggest that MwA is an independent risk factor for AF, especially in patients <55 years old, and that AF-mediated cardioembolism may play a role in the migraine-stroke association for some patients.

Keywords: artificial intelligence; atrial fibrillation; big data; migraine with aura; migraine-stroke association; women's health.