Targeting Sagebrush (Artemisia Spp.) Restoration Following Wildfire with Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus Urophasianus) Nest Selection and Survival Models

Abstract

Unprecedented conservation efforts for sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems across the western United States have been catalyzed by risks from escalated wildfire activity that reduces habitat for sagebrush-obligate species such as Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). However, post-fire restoration is challenged by spatial variation in ecosystem processes influencing resilience to disturbance and resistance to non-native invasive species, and spatial and temporal lags between slower sagebrush recovery processes and faster demographic responses of sage-grouse to loss of important habitat. Decision-support frameworks that account for these factors can help users strategically apply restoration efforts by predicting short and long-term ecological benefits of actions. Here, we developed a framework that strategically targets burned areas for restoration actions (e.g., seeding or planting sagebrush) that have the greatest potential to positively benefit sage-grouse populations through time. Specifically, we estimated sagebrush recovery following wildfire and risk of non-native annual grass invasion under four scenarios: passive recovery, grazing exclusion, active restoration with seeding, and active restoration with seedling transplants. We then applied spatial predictions of integrated nest site selection and survival models before wildfire, immediately following wildfire, and at 30 and 50 years post-wildfire based on each restoration scenario and measured changes in habitat. Application of this framework coupled with strategic planting designs aimed at developing patches of nesting habitat may help increase operational resilience for fire-impacted sagebrush ecosystems.

Keywords: Cheatgrass; Decision-support tool; Habitat restoration; Nest survival; Sagebrush; Wildfire.

Fig. 1

Predictions of (a) pre-fire sage-grouse nest habitat suitability index (HSI); (b) pre-fire sage-grouse nest survival map; (c) projected loss of selected nesting habitat from wildfire; (d) projected loss of habitat contributions to nest survival from wildfire within the Virginia Mountains region of Nevada, USA. Pre-fire data were specific to the breeding seasons of study years 2009–2016. Wildfire events occurred during the summers of 2016 and 2017.

Fig. 2

Habitat restoration index based on the intersection of loss of habitat selected by sage-grouse and loss of habitat contributions to nest survival following wildfire. Four classes were created by reclassifying the differenced nest Resource Selection Function (RSF) map based on relative losses in habitat selected pre-fire >0 (2 classes, low vs. high) and the differenced nest survival map based on the 50th percentile of loss of cumulative 38-day nest survival (2 classes, low vs. high)

Fig. 3

Established sagebrush recovery (>20% cover) within the 2016 and 2017 Virginia Mountain fires after 50 years under (a) passive, (b) seeding, (c) outplanting, and (d) grazing exclusion restoration efforts. Recovered sagebrush in priority nesting habitat is distinguished from non-priority recovery by darker shading