Issues in Bayesian prospective surveillance of spatial health data

Abstract

In this paper I review some of the major issues that arise when geo-referenced health data are to be the subject of prospective surveillance. The review focusses on modelbased approaches to this activity, and proposes the Bayesian paradigm as a convenient vehicle for modeling. Various posterior functional measures are discussed including the SCPO and SKL and a number of extensions to these are considered. Overall the value of Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling (BHM) with surveillance functionals is stressed in its relevance to early warning of adverse risk scenarios.

Keywords: Bayesian; Covid-19; Hierarchical modeling; Measures; Prospective; Surveillance.