Validation study of postoperative liver failure and mortality risk scores after liver resection for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

Abstract

Background: Surgery for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHCC) remains a challenging procedure with high morbidity and mortality. The Academic Medical Center (Amsterdam UMC) and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center proposed a postoperative mortality risk score (POMRS) and post-hepatectomy liver failure score (PHLFS) to predict patient outcomes. This study aimed to validate the POMRS and PHLFS for PHCC patients at Hokkaido University.

Methods: Medical records of 260 consecutive PHCC patients who had undergone major hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection without pancreaticoduodenectomy at Hokkaido University between March 2001 and November 2018 were evaluated to validate the PHLFS and POMRS.

Results: The observed risks for PHLF were 13.7%, 24.5%, and 39.8% for the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively, in the study cohort. A receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis revealed that the PHLFS had moderate predictive value, with an analysis under the curve (AUC) value of 0.62. Mortality rates based on the POMRS were 1.7%, 5%, and 5.1% for the low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively. The ROC analysis demonstrated an AUC value of 0.58.

Conclusions: This external validation study showed that for PHLFS the threshold for discrimination in an Eastern cohort was reached (AUC >0.6), but it would require optimization of the model before use in clinical practice is acceptable. The POMRS were not applicable in the eastern cohort. Further external validation is recommended.

Keywords: Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHCC); post operative mortality score; post-hepatectomy liver failure score (PHLFS); validation study.