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Comparative Study
. 2022 Aug;49(8):740-748.
doi: 10.1111/jcpe.13672. Epub 2022 Jun 14.

Comparison of the efficacy of periodontal prognostic systems in predicting tooth loss

Selai Saydzai  1 , Zoe Buontempo  1 , Pankti Patel  1 , Fatemah Hasan  1 , Chuanming Sun  2 , Aliye Akcalı  3   4 , Guo-Hao Lin  5 , Nikos Donos  4 , Luigi Nibali  1
Affiliations
Comparative Study

Comparison of the efficacy of periodontal prognostic systems in predicting tooth loss

Selai Saydzai et al. J Clin Periodontol. 2022 Aug.

Abstract

Aim: The aim of this analysis was to assess how different tooth-prognosis systems could predict tooth loss in a cohort of periodontitis patients followed up prospectively during supportive periodontal care (SPC).

Materials and methods: Clinical and radiographic data of 97 patients undergoing regular SPC for 5 years were used to assign tooth prognosis using four different systems (McGuire & Nunn, 1996; Kwok & Caton, 2007; Graetz et al., 2011; Nibali et al., 2017). Three independent examiners assigned tooth prognosis using all four systems, following a calibration exercise. The association between prognostic categories and tooth loss was tested for each prognostic system separately and across prognostic systems.

Results: All four systems showed good reproducibility and could identify teeth at higher risk of being lost during 5 years of SPC; the risk of tooth loss increased with the worsening of tooth-prognosis category (p < .0001). Although specificity and negative predictive values were good, low sensitivity and positive predictive values were detected for all systems.

Conclusions: Previously published periodontal prognostic systems exhibited good reproducibility and predictive ability for tooth retention. However, low sensitivity was detected, with several teeth in the worst prognosis category being retained at 5 years. Some modifications in the number of categories and their definitions are suggested.

Keywords: periodontitis; prognosis; tooth loss.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors have stated explicitly that there are no conflicts of interest in connection with this article.

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