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. 2022 Sep 17;29(6):taac073.
doi: 10.1093/jtm/taac073.

International risk of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant importations originating in South Africa

Yuan Bai  1   2 , Zhanwei Du  1   2 , Mingda Xu  1 , Lin Wang  3 , Peng Wu  1   2 , Eric H Y Lau  1   2 , Benjamin J Cowling  1   2 , Lauren Ancel Meyers  4   5
Affiliations

International risk of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant importations originating in South Africa

Yuan Bai et al. J Travel Med. .

Abstract

Omicron, a fast-spreading SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern reported to the World Health Organization on 24 November 2021, has raised international alarm. We estimated there is at least 50% chance that Omicron had been introduced by travellers from South Africa into 11 of the 14 countries studied by 28 November 2021.

Keywords: Omicron; SARS-CoV-2 variant; importations; spreading.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Estimated risks of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant introductions from SA to 14 non-African regions on or before 28 November 2021; (A) the probability that at least one person infected with the Omicron variant arrived in a given country from SA by the date indicated on the x-axis based on Facebook mobility and OpenSky data; the black dashed vertical line indicates 26 November 2021 when the WHO classified Omicron as a VOC; the red dashed horizontal line indicates an importation probability of 50%; line colours correspond to the relative risk of importations as of 26 November, with red and blue indicating high and low probability, respectively; regions that confirmed Omicron cases or not by 29 November 2021 are listed in black and blue; regions without data are in grey; dates in parentheses as the timing of first omicron reported in GISAID; (B) mean probability of at least one Omicron variant importation from SA by 28 November 2021 in 1000 stochastic simulations; regions in grey were not analysed because mobility data were not available
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References

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Supplementary concepts