Extreme weather layer method for implementation of nature-based solutions for climate adaptation: Case study Słupsk

Abstract

One of the most severe climate risks that is expected to affect all regions is related to stormwater. Climate models, constructed based on long-term trends, show that extreme weather events such as storms, cloudbursts and a large rise in sea level will be significant in the coming decades. Moreover, even the frequency and intensity of "normal" rainfall events, such as microbursts, are expected to be remarkably higher than today in some regions. The efficiency of urban drainage systems is affected by the land use in its whole catchment. In addition to the climate stress, there is ongoing continuous densification of urban space, resulting in more buildings and larger areas being covered with impervious surfaces. Planning decisions today approving such compaction do not consider the impacts beyond the close proximity of the land parcel. As a result, by following the current planning practices, cities are becoming extremely vulnerable to stormwater flooding (flash floods). This study presents a holistic and dynamic planning method - the Extreme Weather Layer (EWL) - that makes it possible to analyse the impact of a single development (e.g. paving a gravel parking lot with asphalt or turning an area of urban greenery into a shopping centre) on the performance of the urban drainage system and therefore on the flooding risk of the whole catchment. The EWL is based on a widely accepted drainage modelling engine coupled with GIS system and other databases which provide spatial information. Thus, the EWL combined with the systemic approach of turning from grey to green infrastructure could be a smart tool for implementing NBS solutions for stormwater management in climate adaptation in urban areas. This smart tool could indicate how much more green infrastructure is needed and which places in the city the mitigative NBS measures would help significantly.

Keywords: Nature-based solutions; Scenarios of climate change; Smart tool; Spatial planning; Stormwater management at source.